Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Ceasefire Talks Weigh on Safe-Haven Appeal

Market Overview

Gold prices hovered near $3,209 in Tuesday’s Asian session, under pressure as traders responded to renewed optimism in global risk markets. The shift came following news that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to enter ceasefire talks, diminishing the demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.

Despite this, gold has managed to hold above the $3,200 mark, underpinned by a weaker U.S. dollar and dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.

The greenback continues to drift near a one-week low after softer-than-expected U.S. CPI and retail sales data last week. Markets are now pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025.

“The Fed remains in a tough spot—soft data is building the case for easing, but officials are hesitant,” said a commodities analyst at KCM Research.

Silver Struggles Near $32.14 as Dollar Strength Caps Upside

Silver followed gold’s lead, trading near $32.14 after hitting an intraday low. A stronger U.S. dollar and easing geopolitical tensions are weighing on demand for the metal.

Although some uncertainty lingers in global markets, silver has failed to build upward momentum, reflecting investor caution.

Fed Rhetoric and Trade Sentiment to Drive Short-Term Moves

While the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to “Aa1” by Moody’s last week raised concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, market reaction was muted. Instead, investor focus is squarely on upcoming Federal Reserve commentary.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams both signaled caution, with Bostic suggesting only one rate cut may be warranted this year.

Simultaneously, improving global trade sentiment has tempered safe-haven demand. Traders are watching for FOMC speeches and any surprise headlines related to trade or geopolitical tensions. With no major U.S. economic releases scheduled for Tuesday, market direction may hinge on tone rather than data.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,200 but remains capped by a descending trendline, while silver teeters at triangle support. Both metals await Fed guidance and volume confirmation to determine breakout or breakdown.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,209 and struggling beneath a descending trendline that’s capped every bounce this week. The 50-EMA at $3,222 is acting like a ceiling, with price repeatedly getting knocked down at that level. We’re still seeing lower highs, and that’s a concern if you’re bullish.

Support at $3,207 is holding for now, but another rejection without follow-through could open the door toward $3,180 or $3,163. Bulls need a clean break above $3,252 to shift momentum. Until then, the bias leans bearish.

Think of gold here like a ball bouncing under a low ceiling—it needs serious strength to break out, otherwise gravity wins.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is hovering around $32.14 and sitting right at the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle, where momentum looks fragile. Price has been compressing between descending resistance and ascending support, with the 50-EMA ($32.37) capping recent rallies.

A close below $32.00 would confirm a breakdown and could drag price toward $31.66 or even $31.43. The overall structure is bearish with lower highs persisting since mid-May. Buyers would need to reclaim $32.29 to spark any bullish shift.