Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: Can the Wedge Break Higher After the Fed?

Plotting the metal’s chart against the U.S. dollar reveals a clear falling wedge pattern that is bound to break soon.

One plausible reason for Gold’s bearish trend is that investors are abandoning it for yielding assets, as Gold is non-yielding. And the reason for this shift in appetite is that crude price is going up, due to the Middle East crises, and lifting inflation levels along with it.

This high level of inflation has led investors to believe that the Fed will be more hawkish and hold rates higher for longer, which ultimately rewards those with yielding assets in their portfolio.

The Federal Reserve reports tomorrow, July 29, at 2:00 p.m. ET, and the current target range is from 3.50% to 3.75%. It is worth noting that tomorrow’s report is an interim meeting that doesn’t carry a dot plot. Hence, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will be the major market-moving catalyst.

Taking a closer look at the technical analysis with the falling wedge pattern, it shows that price, which is at 4,023 at the time of writing, currently sits below all four moving averages.

• 20-EMA at 4,079
• 50-EMA at 4,209
• 200-EMA at 4,296
• 100-EMA at 4,345

The next level to watch before price reaches the bottom trend line of the wedge is the historical support level at 3,920. If that level fails to hold, we can see gold testing the bottom trend line at around 3,820, and potentially breaking it to lower price levels. For this to happen, the Fed has to be hawkish tomorrow, holding rates high and giving investors a reason to continue pulling money out of gold.

If however, the Fed is dovish tomorrow, we may experience an invalidation of the bearish thesis, with gold bouncing from the 3,920 support level or the falling wedge’s bottom trend line, and going up to test the 20, 50, 100, and 200-EMAs. A clean break above the wedge’s upper trend line and a close above all moving averages puts us back in bullish territory.

The RSI is slightly below average at 43, but well above oversold levels. It is a signal to keep an eye on in case price picks up momentum in either direction.

Another key signal to watch is the appetite of Central Banks for gold. If this appetite starts reducing, and the banks aren’t buying as much gold as they normally would, it could remove a vital demand floor and send price crashing.

Silver Forecast: Does The Deficit Story Cap The Downside?

Silver appears to be moving in tandem with gold. The metal also reached a 2026 all-time high of around $120 in January and has dropped to lower price levels ever since. As of the time of writing, silver is at around $57, close to a key support level at 56.04 where it bounced from just last week.

That bounce was influenced by a pullback in crude price, due to U.S.-Iran peace talks, that sparked hopes for relaxed Fed rates ahead of tomorrow’s report. It is worth noting that the same yield analysis that affects gold price also affects sliver, as silver is a non-yielding asset too; meaning that if the returns on yielding assets fall lower, investors are likely to return to metals like silver and gold as safe havens.

However, silver has one distinguishing factor from gold. 2026 marks the sixth consecutive year in a row of global silver shortage, meaning that supply has failed to satisfy demand for the last six years, and this creates an extra bullish catalyst for silver that can easily send prices higher once yield-sensitive funds return.

The technical analysis for silver reveals a falling wedge, just like gold’s, with price sitting below all four moving averages:

The next lines of defense are the 57.35 support level and the bottom trend line of the falling wedge at around 52.98. If these levels fail to hold, that would most likely be as a result of a hawkish Fed. A dovish Fed posture projected for September, on the other hand, can help silver price to hold at these support levels and bounce above the EMAs, breaking out of the wedge into bullish territory.

What traders are really looking out for tomorrow is not the July interest rate decision, which is already priced in and wouldn’t make much of an impact. It is what the Fed Chair says tomorrow about September that can truly move the needle, as markets price an almost 80% chance of a rate hike in September, and a contrary stance from Kevin Warsh can cause volatile price movements in silver and gold.

Platinum Forecast: Can Tight Supply Offset Rate Pressure?

Platinum currently trades around $1,590, close to the 1,510 support level where price bounced from in November 2025 to reach an high of about 2,517 in December, and then 2,875 in January this year.

Platinum’s price is significantly driven by a supply deficit, as mining operations are unable to meet demand, even though the demand is dwindling. The World Platinum Investment Council is projecting a fourth consecutive annual Platinum deficit in 2026 amid constrained mining efforts and higher cost of energy.

The technical read on Platinum against the U.S. dollar reveals a squeeze between the four EMAs and the support level at 1,510.

And although the RSI is at a near-average level with enough room for either bullish or bearish scenarios to play out, the Fed meeting tomorrow is a significant catalyst that can easily influence where price goes next. A hawkish Fed pulls rate-sensitive funds out of the metal and sends prices lower, while a dovish Fed posture does the opposite. Until then, keep your eyes on the chart and listen for what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has to say. Beyond that, increased need for platinum in car manufacturing can drive a bullish reversal in the metal’s price, as automotive demand is the single largest catalyst for Platinum.