Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Narrow Range Stalls – $4,236 Break Needed for Continuation

Low-Volatility Consolidation Continues

Gold delivered yet another subdued session Wednesday, ranging only from $4,195 to $4,241 while still managing a higher daily high and low. The refusal to clear Tuesday’s $4,236 level keeps the one-day breakout unconfirmed and the minor retracement from Monday’s $4,264 swing high technically alive.

Bullish Hammer and Support Test

Tuesday printed a clear hammer candle just above the rising 10-day average, with Wednesday’s low holding comfortably above it. That hammer, combined with the higher low structure, offers early evidence that buyers are defending the pullback zone and sets up a straightforward resumption trigger above $4,236.

Breakout Lacking Follow-Through

Friday’s symmetrical triangle breakout provided further evidence that the recent pullback is likely complete. Yet subsequent sessions have produced no meaningful acceleration. The triangle breakout followed a relatively normal retracement of less than 50% of the prior upswing before the October swing low was established. Monday carved a higher swing high but closed below the prior high, and the past two days have been conspicuously quiet — highlighting that demand, while present, remains measured rather than aggressive.

Measured Objectives Ahead

The first realistic target remains $4,356, where the current second leg from October’s $3,886 low exactly matches the price gain of the initial leg. That symmetry zone can generate resistance even on muted momentum, making it a logical initial pivot before any push toward the $4,381 record high becomes realistic.

Rising Dynamic Support

Tuesday’s $4,164 low is about to be touched by the rising 10-day average (reclaimed November 24), strengthening that entire area as short-term support. As the average continues climbing, it will provide an ascending floor beneath price and mark progressively higher zones for buyers to defend on any additional weakness.

Outlook

Gold’s larger trend remains solidly bullish, but the lack of conviction since the triangle breakout is keeping upside potential on hold. A decisive close above $4,236 flips the switch and targets $4,356 minimum; continued failure invites more range-bound trading with the rising 10-day average as the line in the sand for the developing short-term trend. Until buyers step up with volume, expect the low-volatility grind to persist.

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