Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Decision Day Keeps XAU/USD and XAG/USD in Focus

Gold News: Fed Outlook and Central Bank Demand Keep Precious Metals in Focus

The gold and silver markets are preoccupied with Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, which will be the first meeting of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. However, traders will scrutinise his comments and press conference to determine when monetary policy easing may begin and the Fed’s views on inflation, the job market and growth. On top of that, second-quarter GDP, June PCE inflation and July employment figures will be released, adding to the Fed’s significance.

Central bank buying will still support gold. According to the World Gold Council, official-sector purchases held up in the first half of 2026 as central banks continued to diversify their reserves. Poland and China were among the largest buyers. The World Gold Council added that, despite some profit-taking, demand from institutions was still strong and the year-to-date flow of gold-backed exchange-traded funds remained positive.

Silver fundamentals are driven by industrial demand. The Silver Institute expects that there will be a strong sustained demand for solar panels, electric vehicles, power grids and AI equipment, despite a weak manufacturing environment in some major economies. Analysts see the transition to clean energy and an expanding data centre sector as structural drivers of silver demand over the next few years.

With the Fed decision less than 24 hours away, precious metals investors will likely pay more attention to policy guidance than macroeconomic news, especially if it changes the Fed’s stance.   

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Keeps Breakout in Focus

Gold is forming a big symmetrical triangle with price currently sitting around $4,034 after bouncing off the rising trendline near $4,011. Nonetheless, the price remains below the 50-EMA ($4,058) and 100-EMA ($4,071), suggesting that the overall short-term trend is bearish. The RSI is recovering to around 43, which indicates that bearish momentum is slowing down, but bulls are not yet in charge.

Resistance is immediately at $4,066, followed by $4,114 and $4,166. Support is held at $4,011, followed by $3,959 and $3,913.

Gold is neutral as long as it trades within the triangle. A break above $4,066 would increase the likelihood of a move towards $4,114 and $4,166, whereas a break below $4,011 would open up the possibility of a drop towards $3,959.

Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Triangle Support Holds as Bulls Attempt Recovery

Silver is forming a wide symmetrical triangle and bouncing off the rising trendline near $56.88. The price is now around $57.76, but is still below the 50-EMA ($58.11) and 100-EMA ($58.78), which means that the medium-term trend is still bearish. The RSI is recovering to around 48, which suggests that momentum is improving, but bulls are still not in control.

Resistance is immediate at $58.67, followed by $59.00 and $60.03. Support is at $56.88, followed by $56.11 and $54.84.

Silver is still able to recover as long as the rising trendline is holding above $56.88. A break below $56.88 would signal a break in the bullish structure and shift focus to $56.11 and $54.84.