Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bullish Above $3228.38 Pivot as Dollar Drops, Eyes $3277.91

Gold Holds Steady as Dollar Weakens and Traders Brace for Fed Clues

Gold prices inched higher on Tuesday, buoyed by continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and firm technical support levels. XAU/USD is grinding out small gains above a key pivot at $3228.38, maintaining its stance above the 50-day moving average at $3175.80 for a fourth straight session. The setup reflects underlying demand, especially following last week’s successful dip-buying near $3120.

At 12:12 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3237.41, up $7.00 or +0.22%.

Can Technical Support Hold as Market Eyes $3277 Resistance?

Gold tested the $3175.80 level multiple times between May 15–16 and bounced sharply after triggering stops to as low as $3120.76. Buyers quickly stepped in, reaffirming the “buy the dip” strategy that’s defined gold’s recent price action.

A break above $3228.38 would likely invite more buying interest, but stiff resistance zones at $3277.91 and $3310.48 may cap gains short-term. A failure to hold the 50-day MA could reopen the path to $3120.76 and potentially $3087.70.

Weaker Dollar Fuels Gold Prices as ‘Sell America’ Trade Returns

The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) dipped another 0.2%, extending its slide since January. The greenback is now 10.6% below its early-year highs, as investors increasingly question the dollar’s role as a haven. Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt added further pressure, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Net short positions on the dollar have climbed to $17.32 billion, reflecting deep skepticism about U.S. fiscal credibility and long-term asset strength.

Trade-related uncertainty, ballooning federal deficits, and the rising cost of foreign hedging have accelerated outflows from U.S. assets. Some Asian economies are rethinking exposure to USD-denominated holdings, threatening a deeper selloff in the dollar if repatriation accelerates. These conditions support gold as an alternative store of value.

Fed Speeches Loom as Market Prices in Rate Cuts

Traders are closely monitoring scheduled comments from Federal Reserve officials, which could hint at the central bank’s next steps. With markets now pricing in 54 basis points of cuts this year and the first reduction likely by October, expectations are leaning dovish. A dovish Fed, combined with a deteriorating fiscal picture and softer dollar, continues to support the bullish case for gold.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds as Dollar Outlook Worsens

Gold remains in a technically constructive zone. The defense of $3175.80 and continued weakness in the dollar underpin the bullish outlook. Unless Fed commentary drastically alters rate cut expectations or gold fails the 50-day MA, the path of least resistance points higher, with upside targets at $3277.91 and $3310.48.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.