Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Pullback as Dollar Firms but Fed Dovish Bets Ling

Gold Pulls Back After 2-Week High as Traders Track Fed and Dollar Signals

Gold prices are under mild pressure on Friday after touching $3409.43, the highest level since late July. The move lower appears to be driven by light profit-taking following the recent rally.

Traders are now assessing whether the combination of a weaker U.S. dollar, steady Treasury yields, and political uncertainty over the Federal Reserve can keep gold supported into next week’s key inflation release.

At 12:07 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3387.24, down $9.24 or -0.27%.

Key Support Levels in Focus for Gold Prices Forecast

On the downside, immediate support sits at the minor pivot of $3353.58, followed closely by the 50-day moving average at $3350.00. This zone remains the most important chart marker for bulls—holding above it keeps the “buy-the-dip” narrative intact.

A break under $3350.00 could open the door to deeper retracements, which may attract short-term sellers. On the upside, a decisive push back through today’s high of $3409.43 could trigger buying toward resistance at $3439.04 and $3451.53.

Dollar Holds Steady but Faces Weekly Loss

The U.S. dollar is slightly firmer on the day but still on track for a weekly drop, with the dollar index flat at 98.31 and down 0.6% since Monday.

Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed’s Board has reinforced expectations for a dovish stance, which could weaken the greenback further.

A softer dollar tends to lift gold by making it more affordable for overseas buyers, and traders will be watching if the political influence narrative keeps pressure on the currency.

Treasury Yields Steady, Supporting Bullion

U.S. Treasury yields are little changed, with the 10-year at 4.252% and the 2-year near 3.742%.

Stable or declining yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing a cushion during pullbacks.

If yields stay contained—especially on the short end—bullion is more likely to find dip buyers. Conversely, a sudden jump in yields, potentially from hotter inflation readings, could weigh on gold in the short term.

Tariff Headlines Add to Gold’s Supportive Backdrop

Tariff developments also remain on the radar. New U.S. levies include 50% duties on Brazilian and Indian goods, 25–35% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and a 10% baseline tariff elsewhere. These measures could fuel economic uncertainty, which often drives safe-haven demand for gold.

Market Outlook – Gold Prices Projection

As long as $3350.00 holds, the near-term bias remains constructive. Dollar softness, stable yields, and trade uncertainty provide a favorable environment for further upside.

A break above $3409.43 would target $3439.04 and $3451.53. A drop below $3350.00, however, would undermine the bullish case and point to deeper corrective action.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.