Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Will Fed Minutes Trigger a Gold Breakout Above $3310.48?

Gold Holds Above Key Support as Traders Await Fed Minutes and PCE Data

Gold is consolidating in Wednesday trade, caught between pivotal levels at $3310.48 and $3277.91, with traders closely eyeing U.S. economic releases and Federal Reserve commentary for near-term direction. After Tuesday’s pullback, buyers stepped in, supporting prices in anticipation of the Fed’s latest policy meeting minutes and Friday’s release of April’s PCE inflation data.

At 12:13 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3307.50, up $6.75 or +0.20%.

Will Fed Minutes Signal a Policy Shift?

Gold found renewed support on dip-buying interest, rebounding from Tuesday’s slide as investors positioned ahead of a heavy macroeconomic calendar. “Markets are in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the Fed minutes, prompting position adjustments,” said Jigar Trivedi of Reliance Securities. The Federal Reserve’s May policy minutes, due later today, are expected to offer clues on the central bank’s inflation tolerance and potential rate path.

New York Fed President John Williams emphasized on Wednesday the need for a “relatively strong” response if inflation moves away from target. The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% since December, with policymakers expressing caution over persistent inflation and geopolitical noise, including recent U.S. tariff developments.

Rising Treasury Yields Weigh on Gold Prices Forecast

Yields across the U.S. Treasury curve climbed Wednesday morning, with the 10-year reaching 4.473%, and the 2-year yield edging up to 3.965%. This increase in yields reflects bond market caution ahead of the Fed minutes and Friday’s core PCE report, the central bank’s preferred inflation measure. Higher yields tend to pressure non-yielding assets like gold, making upcoming data pivotal for short-term gold price projections.

U.S.–Swiss Gold Trade Surges as Tariff Risk Recedes

Swiss customs data revealed gold imports from the U.S. surged to 63 metric tons in April—the highest monthly volume since at least 2012. This jump followed the exclusion of precious metals from U.S. import tariffs. While U.S. inflows into Switzerland rose, Swiss exports to the U.S. plunged from 103.3 tons in March to just 12.7 tons in April, suggesting a reverse flow into London vaults through Swiss refiners. Deliveries to India and China improved on the month but still lagged year-ago levels, reflecting patchy physical demand recovery.

Gold Price Outlook: Bullish Bias if Traders Can Push Above $3310.48

Gold’s technical structure is delicately poised. The market remains above the 50-day moving average at $3218.10, a key longer-term support. Bulls need a sustained push above $3310.48 to regain upside momentum. Conversely, a break below $3277.91 could open the door for a retest of $3218.10.

With Fed minutes and PCE data looming, the near-term bias favors consolidation. However, any downside miss in inflation or dovish Fed tone could revive bullish interest. BNP Paribas maintains a bullish view, forecasting U.S. gold futures to average $3,685 in Q3 and $3,850 in Q4.

Short-term tone remains neutral-to-bullish with a breakout above $3310.48 signaling fresh buying interest.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.