Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $3,230 Holds as Bears Eye Break Below $3,200

Market Overview

Gold prices continued to slide for a third straight session on Thursday, with XAU/USD falling to a two-week low near $3,221 during Asian trading hours. The drop follows a wave of optimism surrounding potential U.S.-China trade agreements, which dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

President Donald Trump hinted at progress on multiple trade fronts, including deals with India, South Korea, and Japan—remarks that helped lift market sentiment and buoyed the U.S. dollar.

Weak U.S. Data Signals Economic Strain

Despite the risk-on mood, recent economic data from the United States points to underlying economic weakness. The ADP employment report showed that private-sector job growth slowed sharply in April, with just 62,000 new positions added—less than half of March’s revised figure and well below expectations.

Additionally, first-quarter GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, marking the first decline in three years. Core PCE inflation also slowed, falling to 2.6% year-over-year in March from 3% in February.

These indicators have amplified concerns about a potential U.S. recession and strengthened expectations for monetary easing. Traders now anticipate the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates as early as June, with a full percentage point of cuts expected by year-end.

Rate Cut Bets and Geopolitical Risks Lend Support

While stronger trade prospects and a rising dollar have pressured gold and silver in the near term, markets remain cautiously bullish due to dovish Fed expectations and lingering geopolitical concerns.

Russia’s renewed military activity in Eastern Europe has kept some safe-haven interest alive.

Investors now turn their focus to Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report and ISM manufacturing data, which may provide further direction for the Fed and metals markets.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains under pressure near $3,230, with technicals pointing lower toward $3,167. Silver eyes $31.75 as resistance holds. Friday’s U.S. data could determine metals’ next directional move.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is hanging near $3,230 after sliding below the key support-turned-resistance zone around $3,246. This level had held firm since mid-April, but the break confirms a short-term bearish shift. The 50 EMA at $3,299 is now pressing down on price, while the 200 EMA rests far below at $3,173, offering longer-term support.

With price stuck beneath a descending trendline and the rejection from $3,309 acting as a ceiling, bulls will need to reclaim $3,246 fast—or risk losing ground toward $3,167 or even $3,104.

The current structure favors sellers unless gold can flip resistance back into support. Traders should remain cautious and watch how price reacts around the $3,230 zone in the sessions ahead.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading just above $32.03 after slipping below the $32.33 support zone, now acting as resistance. The break also puts price beneath both the 50 EMA ($32.79) and 200 EMA ($32.56), signaling bearish pressure is mounting. The next levels to watch are $31.75 and $31.35, which could be tested if downside momentum continues.

This is a textbook support flip: what was once a floor has now become a ceiling. The bearish break from the ascending trendline further confirms weakening structure. Unless bulls reclaim $32.33 and push above the 200 EMA, silver remains at risk of drifting toward $31.00.