Gold and silver both look positive as we head into the third quarter of 2025. At this point, it is the Federal Reserve that people will be watching, as well as geopolitical issues around the world. It should be positive, but this is a situation where things are going to be noisy.
The gold market has been rallying for some time now, and it looks to me like it has spent the last month or two trying to work off a little bit of excess froth. This, of course, has been happening between the $3,200 level on the bottom and the $3,500 on the top. The market has just shot straight up in the air for quite a while, so this doesn’t surprise me.
So, then the question is, what happens in Q3? With the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates, it’s likely that we’ll continue to provide a little bit of a floor for gold. And you have to keep in mind that central banks around the world continue to buy gold as well. So, I think that’s a good sign, quite frankly. With this being the case, I look at dips as buying opportunities, which is exactly what got us here in the first place. A break above $3,500 opens up a move to $3,800.
Silver finds itself bouncing around between the $35 and $37.50 levels. This is a market that is going to follow gold or lead it. They tend to do that back and forth. Looking at the impulsive move that we have seen, it’s not surprising to see this market just kind of grind sideways in this general vicinity. Ultimately, though, I think we’ve got a situation where traders will continue to assume that this is a market that is more bullish than bearish. And that will be especially true if we continue to see the US dollar soften.
That of course goes back to the Federal Reserve, but we’ll have to wait and see. It is an industrial battle. So, it gets a little bit of a tailwind from loosening monetary policy because it should at least in theory drive industry as well. As long as we can stay above about $33.50, the uptrend is pretty strong and intact. It would not surprise me at all to see silver go looking to the $40 level sometime during Q3.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.