Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC+ Output Pressure Markets

Market Overview

WTI crude traded near $63 per barrel, extending a monthly decline of over 10% as geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment. Energy markets remain pressured by the combination of fragile peace negotiations, concerns over global demand, and rising OPEC+ supply.

Traders are closely watching for clarity on policy and trade flows, with volatility heightened by uncertainty over potential disruptions. Natural gas markets have mirrored this cautious tone, with prices retreating from recent highs as risk sentiment shifts.

The outlook for both oil and gas remains sensitive to global political dynamics and supply-demand imbalances.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading around $2.82, slipping after a failed attempt to hold above the 50-EMA at $2.87 and the 100-EMA at $2.92. Price remains confined within a descending channel, reinforcing the broader bearish bias. The rejection near $2.91–$2.92 has set the stage for renewed pressure toward support.

Immediate downside levels to watch are $2.77 and $2.73, with a break lower opening the door toward $2.69. Momentum signals support this view: the RSI at 38 is weakening, staying below the neutral 50 mark, while recent candlesticks show long upper wicks, reflecting selling interest at intraday highs.

To shift sentiment, bulls need a sustained close above $2.92, which could target $3.03. Until then, rallies are likely capped, leaving the path of least resistance to the downside.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading around $62.30, recovering modestly from a dip toward $61.66 support. Price remains under pressure within a broader downtrend, capped by the 50-EMA at $63.24 and the 100-EMA at $63.90, both aligning with descending trendline resistance.

Momentum indicators show limited strength: the RSI at 42 is climbing from oversold territory but still below neutral, while price structure continues to form lower highs. A rejection from the $63.00–$63.10 zone could trigger another retest of $61.66 and, if broken, expose $60.82.

Conversely, a clear break above $64.14 would weaken the bearish bias and open room for $65.12. For now, sellers hold control unless crude reclaims the EMAs with conviction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $65.94, holding just above support at $65.46. The broader trend remains bearish, with price capped by the 50-EMA at $66.13 and the 100-EMA at $66.86, both aligning with a descending trendline from recent highs.

Momentum is weak: the RSI at 44 is below neutral, showing limited buying strength. The market continues to print lower highs, reinforcing the downtrend. A rejection from the $66.20–$66.30 zone could send prices back toward $65.46, with a break below that exposing $64.75 and $64.20.

On the upside, only a confirmed close above $67.04 would challenge the bearish bias and open the way to $67.50–$68.49. Until then, sellers remain in control.