Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Inflation Data Tests Fed Cut Hopes, Traders Eye Key Levels

Market Overview

Gold started the week under renewed pressure after U.S. inflation data came in stronger than anticipated, challenging expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, exceeding consensus forecasts of 2.5% and accelerating from June’s 2.4%. The hotter-than-expected print pushed investors to reconsider the Fed’s path, with futures markets paring back bets on near-term monetary easing.

“The July PPI release adds to the case for higher-for-longer interest rates,” said one New York-based commodities strategist. “That’s traditionally a headwind for gold because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises as rates remain elevated.”

Reinforcing this narrative, U.S. retail sales showed a 0.5% increase in July, in line with expectations but a step down from June’s revised 0.9% gain. The data underscores steady consumer activity, further evidence of economic resilience that makes aggressive policy easing less urgent for the Fed.

Silver Benefits From Safe-Haven Demand

Silver, often viewed as both an industrial and safe-haven asset, mirrored gold’s cautious trading. While stronger inflation data restrained upside momentum, persistent geopolitical risks sustained investor interest. Analysts note silver’s dual role leaves it particularly sensitive to swings in both macroeconomic indicators and risk sentiment.

“Safe-haven demand is providing a floor for silver,” said an Asia-based market analyst. “But with inflation readings surprising to the upside, the ceiling is just as firm for now.”

Industrial demand indicators also remain in focus. Silver’s link to sectors such as renewable energy and electronics keeps it aligned not only with investor flows but also with global growth expectations, which continue to be clouded by tariff policies and trade uncertainty.

Traders Await Geopolitical Cues

Market attention now turns to a high-profile diplomatic meeting in Washington, where security negotiations are expected to dominate. Reports of ongoing discussions between U.S. and Russian officials have added another layer of uncertainty, limiting the downside for precious metals even as U.S. data strengthens.

For both gold and silver, the coming weeks will hinge on whether the Fed signals flexibility in its September policy stance and how geopolitical talks evolve. Until then, traders are bracing for volatility as the tug-of-war between inflation data and risk hedging continues to shape the outlook.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades near $3,355, supported above the $3,346 trendline, with resistance at $3,375. Silver holds around $38.11, supported at $38.00, with upside targets at $38.71 and $39.14.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,355, holding above the rising trendline from late July. Price has reclaimed the 50-EMA at $3,349 and the 100-EMA at $3,353, signaling improving short-term momentum. The RSI at 57 points to building strength without being overbought, suggesting further room to climb.

Immediate resistance is set at $3,375, followed by $3,409, while support rests at $3,346 and the trendline base near $3,312.

As long as the trendline holds, buyers remain in control, with potential for a retest of the $3,375–$3,380 zone. A break below $3,346, however, would weaken this bullish structure and expose downside levels.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $38.11, holding just above the ascending trendline that has supported higher lows since late July. Price is hovering between the 50-EMA at $38.07 and the 100-EMA at $38.02, showing consolidation around a key pivot zone.

The RSI at 52 is neutral, suggesting balanced momentum after a modest rebound from oversold territory.

Immediate resistance lies at $38.71, followed by $39.14 and $39.52, while support levels are seen at $37.51 and $36.78. As long as the trendline holds, buyers maintain the advantage, but a failure to defend $38.00 could open the door to deeper downside pressure.