Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: After 3% Plunge, Can CPI Push XAU Above $5,000?

Gold and Silver Market Analysis: Recovery Eyes US CPI Data

Precious metals are fighting to stay on top after a pretty dramatic “liquidity dump” on February 12 where gold plummeted more than 3% and silver tanked nearly 10%.

Precious Metals: Safe-Haven Demand vs. Liquidation

Spot Gold is getting back on track at around $4,960-$4,970, sort of clawing its way back from a low of $4,880 earlier. Alright so Thursday was a bit ugly as the liquidation was the result of people having to meet margin calls across asset lines, but gold is bouncing back because – let’s face it, it’s a classic defensive bet.

Silver’s also picking up steam, up around 2.1-2.5% and trading near $76.76-$77.16, because people are on the hunt for bargains after it’s worst one-day shellacking of the year.

US Economic Backdrop and Fed Outlook

The US Dollar Index is planted firmly in neutral at 97.05, mainly because of the solid labor market data we got

• Jobs: We got a stronger-than-expected 130,000 jobs added earlier this week, which moved the expected Fed rate cut from June all the way to July 2026.
• Jobless Claims: Initial claims were up at 227,000, which was a tad higher than what the market was expecting but still shows how resilient the labour market is.
• Inflation Focus: Everyone’s got their eyes on the January CPI print that comes out today – which is gonna be 2.5% if the forecast is to be believed.

Global Sentiment: A Flight to Safety

Risk sentiment is super fragile right now with global equity indices like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng ending the day in the red.

All that red is actually providing a nice tailwind for the gold price though, but people are really hestitant to put their money on the line until they get a sense of what the US inflation print is gonna mean for interest rates.

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Analysis: Descending Trendline Pressures $5,000 Support

Gold is currently trading around $4,956 on the 4-hour chart with it lingering just below the crucial $4,996 resistance that had previously acted as a support – a line in the sand that gold just can’t seem to break through. And for now, price is stuck below a descending trendline that connects the $5,598 swing high, which is putting a limit on short-term momentum despite a few recent comebacks.

The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of $5,138 keeps acting as a broader hurdle to higher prices, but right now immediate support is coming in at $4,855 with a fall back to $4,682 (0.236 Fibo) a possible option if support does indeed fail.

Now the candlesticks are showing repeated upper wicks near $5,000, which tells us that there’s a decent amount of selling pressure kicking in on any rallies. We also see the 50 period moving average slowly working its way towards $4,990, while the 200-MA is still holding low around $4,780, keeping the medium-term structure pretty intact.

A break above $4,996 would likely trigger a move up towards $5,138 for gold. But, if gold cannot hold above $4,855 then a pullback looks a very distinct possibility.

Trade idea: The idea is to go long above $5,005 and aiming for $5,135 with a stop-loss below $4,880.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Analysis: Descending Trendline Caps Rebound Near $80

Silver is sitting right around $76.70 on a 4-hour chart after taking a pretty sharp tumble from the $80.11 resistance point . The price is still stuck below a descending trend line that was drawn from that high of $106.60 , which means that picture overall is looking pretty corrective, even though the price has stabilised a bit recently.

The way the candles have been behaving shows a pretty strong downward momentum trying to get down to $70.37 earlier on in the week , and then a bit of a recovery started forming higher lows. However, the fact that the upper wicks on those candles keep getting knocked back up near $80 shows us that there is still some selling pressure going on. We also got to see the 50-period moving average starting to slope downward at around $84; meanwhile, the 200-day MA is stubbornly stuck right around $86 and that’s just adding to the overhead resistance view.

If the selling starts up again we should see immediate support pop up at $72.00 , and if that happens we are looking at a pretty slide all the way down to $70.37.

Trade idea: If you are looking to get short, you might want to consider doing so below $76.00, targeting a stop around $72.00 but placing your stop above $80.20