US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Rises on Risk-Off & CPI Watch – GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook Next?

US Dollar Index (DXY): DXY Stability Tested as Global Risk-Off Sentiment Sours

The US Dollar Index is still remarkably resilient, dancing around the 97.02 mark on Friday, February 13, 2026 . The Greenback’s continued strength is due in large part to a “red-hot” January labor market, but a deepening tech-driven global sell-off is prompting people to look to the dollar as the ultimate safe-haven.

Upbeat NFP vs. Mixed Jobless Claims

So far, the Dollar’s recent run upwards is being driven by the surprise addition of 130,000 jobs in the January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report which just about doubled people’s expectations

• Jobless Data: In other job numbers, weekly initial claims came in at 227,000 (that’s down from 232,000 -revised however still a bit higher than folks had forecast) – but that still puts it in a “pretty good” place historically speaking
• Continuing Claims: Total insured unemployment on the other hand crept up to 1.86 million, indicating that even though job cuts are low its taking a while for people to get back out there and find work.

And as a result , the CME FedWatch tool is now saying there’s a 94% chance the Fed will keep rates steady in March – a pretty solid hawkish shift from just a week back.

Global “Risk-Off” Mood: Tech Sell-off Fuels USD Bid

Global markets are looking pretty dire right now, with the whole tech and AI sector – and in particular the likes of Cisco – causing a massive sell-off in markets across Asia and Europe

• Equities Slipping: The S&P 500 is on track to have its first back-to-back weekly loss of 2026, while India’s Nifty IT index took a 5% hit early on in the trading day
• Flight to Safety: This ‘ Artificial intelligence shock’ and the subsequent valuation re-pricing are sending investors running for the hills and back into the safety of the US Dollar and Treasuries

Moving Ahead: All Eyes on US CPI

For now, traders are just holding back ahead of today’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers . A print above the 2.5% forecast would likely send the DXY straight for the 98.00 resistance area. Meanwhile, a figure that falls short of expectations and might just send the DXY plummeting back to 96.50

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Rebound Toward 97.60 Fibo Barrier

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is hanging around $97.10 on the 4-hour chart, after a bit of a recovery from the messy support zone between $96.02 and $96.34. Price has been making a good job of bouncing back from the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $96.34, forming a series of higher lows along a rising trendline that’s now getting a bit too close for comfort at $96.83.

The candles tell a story of steady bullish bodies after that sharp selloff to $95.55, which suggests that the momentum is slowly starting to build. The price is currently stuck between the 50-period moving average at $97.21 and the 200-period MA capping it all at $97.98.

The immediate resistance is at the 0.5 Fibonacci at $97.21, and I’d be surprised if it doesn’t give way to the 0.618 Fibo at $97.61 fairly soon. If we can break above $97.60 then it’s all systems go to $98.00 – $98.50. But if we fail to break through $96.83 then we’re probably going to see a retest of $96.34 support.

Trade idea: Consider going long above $97.25, targeting $97.60-$98.00, with a stop-loss below $96.80.

GBP/USD Forecast: $1.3600 Holds as Trendline Squeeze Builds

GBP/USD is currently parked at $1.3600 on the 4-hour chart, and right on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $1.3580. The price is getting a bit too comfortable between a rising trendline and a descending resistance line from the $1.3870 swing high – which is actually starting to get a bit too tight for my liking. This is starting to look like a classic pre-breakout squeeze.

The price is hovering just above the 50-period moving average at $1.3635, while the 200-period MA at $1.3520 is still sloping upwards, which is at least keeping the overall picture looking constructive. However, all those close calls at $1.3690 (0.382 Fibo) have really made me start to think that there’s some serious selling pressure in the water.

If we can break above $1.3690 then we’re going to have to start thinking about $1.3760. But if we do break below $1.3580 then I think we’re in for a much deeper pullback towards $1.3510 and possibly even $1.3460.

Trade idea: Consider going short below $1.3580, targeting $1.3515, with a stop-loss above $1.3640.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Trendline Support Holds Near $1.1830

EUR/USD is hovering just above $1.1852 on the 4-hour chart, and it’s currently clinging to a key support zone around $1.1830-$1.1840. This area is where a rising trendline and a former breakout zone have merged to form a decent demand base.

The price has been waffling about since it pulled back from the $1.1997 resistance and is currently consolidating below $1.1927. The candles are forming smaller bodies which suggests a bit of a slowdown in the downside momentum. We’re still ticking along above the 200-period moving average at $1.1765, but the 50-period MA at $1.1860 is starting to get a bit too confusing for comfort.

Repeated tests of the $1.1830 support zone without a clean breakdown tell me that buyers are still holding their nerve. If we can break above $1.1900 then it’s all systems go to $1.1990-$1.2080. But if we do break below $1.1830 then we’re probably going to see a bit of a slide towards $1.1765 and possibly even $1.1670.

Trade idea: Consider going long above $1.1865, targeting $1.1925, with a stop-loss below $1.1825.