Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Record 3.7M bpd Surplus Sparks Selloff—WTI Below $63, $60 Next?

Market Overview

As of February 13th 2026, energy markets are in a state of flux. Brent crude is trying to find its footing at around $67.46, while WTI is drifting down to $62.68 but still heading for a second week of losses in a row.

Oil Prices Taken Down a Peg

Oil prices were at five month highs just a few days ago due to the US-Iran tensions, but the writing’s on the wall now – they’re waning fast. The reason why is President Trump letting everyone know that he’d rather negotiate a new nuclear deal rather than stand firm on the threat of supply disruptions, and that’s significantly reducing the immediate risk.

A bearish outlook for supply fundamentals

• A Record Surplus is looming: IEA is sounding the alarm, warning of a massive 3.7 million barrel per day surplus in 2026 – the biggest one year surplus in history.
• Inventory shelves are getting bulging: Recent EIA numbers show a huge 8.5 million barrel jump in crude stocks in the US, sending the market into a chill.
• Venezuelan oil production – the good news keeps coming: Following that change of power in Caracas, Venezuela just exported 800,000 bpd in January. Analysts reckon we can expect that to shoot up to 1.4 million bpd by 2027 once the west starts pumping in some cash again.

A natural gas shakeup is underway

Natural gas futures took a 2.2% hit today, down to $3.14 per million mmbtu. Even though huge chunks of it were just sucked out of storage because of Winter Storm Fern, forecasts for milder temperatures mid February have had traders dumping their prompt month contracts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: $3.15 Support Tested as 0.236 Fibo Caps at $3.33

Natural Gas futures are at this point around $3.15 on the 4-hour chart, and right now its just holding steady below a 0.236 Fibonacci level that’s sitting right at $3.33. Price just got kicked out of the $3.49 area.

We are sitting on the 50-period moving average around $3.20, while the 200- MA is trending down at around $2.16, keeping the big picture looking pretty constructive still.

If $3.05 gets broken then price could go on to revisit $2.67 (0.382 Fibo) down below. On the other hand if we somehow manage to close above $3.33 then the $3.91 level starts to look a lot more accessible.

Trade idea: Consider going long above $3.35, I’d be looking to get up to $3.90 before stopping out below $3.05.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Breakdown Below $63 Targets $60.50

WTI Crude Oil is under a lot of downward pressure right now, stuck trading around $62.75 – all because it couldn’t stay above that critical $63.11 50-period Moving Average line.  The RSI is currently over in the mid-30s, so we can say with a fair amount of certainty that this downward momentum is still very much in gear.

Seems like Oil has a long way to go before it reaches the $61.23 200-period MA. If the price can stay below $62.18 for long enough we can probably expect to see another key level hit – namely the $60.00 psychological floor.

Trade Idea: The idea is to short the market below $62.50 with our first target being $60.50, but we’d set our stop loss to above $63.50.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast: $67 Support Under Siege as Global Glut Fears Mount

Brent Crude has followed suit with West Texas Intermediate, falling by over 2.7% to close just shy of $67.46. The downward momentum really picked up after the IEAs report in February, which sent shockwaves by slashing 2026 demand growth forecasts to a paltry 850,000 barrels per day – and that wasn’t all – it also warned of a record high surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day.

On a more technical note, Brents chart is starting to look like its losing its shape after a pretty sharp rejection at $70.54. The pair has broken through the $68.45 support and is now hovering ominously close to its upward sloping trendline. If $67.00 cant hold its ground as a close, the next major stop will be the 200-period moving average down at $65.66.

Trade Idea:  Brent Crude may drop below $67.30, targeting $65.70 – just watch out for a stoploss above $68.50.