Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Ceasefire Holds – Gold Defends $4,561, Silver Breaks to $77.78?

Gold and Silver Consolidate as Inflation Data and Ceasefire Stability Shape Outlook

As long-term traders continue to digest April’s higher than anticipated U.S. inflation data, and monitor the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, gold and silver were largely trading in consolidation on May 25, 2026. Both headline and core CPI were higher than anticipated, which, given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s dovishness thus far, may have put any further expectations of rate cuts over the coming months at risk. Real yields remain firm to upside with the dollar and this has prevented gold from posting any strong rallies.

While safe haven demand from central banks is one of the key drivers for gold and the People’s Bank of China has continued its consistent monthly gold purchases well beyond the required 17 months, other emerging market central banks remain key players looking to diversify into gold. Given the conditional U.S. and Iran ceasefire, geopolitical demand for precious metals has diminished somewhat.

Silver is balanced given a reduction in safe haven demand offsetting continued global supply deficits as well as demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, electronics and AI infrastructure, while energy prices have remained soft thus far dampening hedging demand. With the U.S. and Iran ceasefire and continued normalization of oil flows, gold and silver remain well balanced to trade off fundamentals as they look ahead to the Fed later this week.

Gold Spot Defends $4,561 – Blue Descending Channel Floor Reclaimed

Gold holds the line at $4,561 and reclaims the lower boundary of the blue descending channel. As noted previously, the price defended the lower blue descending channel at roughly $4,550. A green rejection candle then formed at this lower boundary, marking a reaction off both the lower blue descending channel and prior swing low. A bullish hammer subsequently followed on red distribution originating near $4,600 as the price maintained a hold above the 0.236 Fib support.

Meanwhile, price remains positioned beneath the red 50-period moving average at $4,566 in the lower zone. The blue descending channel remains intact as long as lower highs are in place. The RSI climbs from oversold near 48 showing mild positive divergence. Additionally, volume shows a cluster zone of support between $4,550 and $4,561 in the lower zone where supply is being absorbed by demand. Resistance above lies near $4,590, followed by $4,629.

Trade long here with a buy target of $4,590, stop loss $4,538.s

Silver Spot Rises to $77.78 – Blue Ascending Channel Breakout

Silver has rallied to $77.78 on the 2H following strong green continuation candles. The price has broken above the red 50-period moving average at $76.50 and the white descending resistance trendline from the lower zone. The blue ascending channel is now in effect from the swing lows and the chart shows a clear higher-high and higher-low sequence. The previous bullish engulfing pattern has cleared the $77.00 pivot level while the RSI has risen above the 55 mark to the upside.

There remains a Fib zone of support at $76.00 from the May swing low. The price maintains its hold at $77.78 on the RSI in the zone of bullish divergence. Additionally, a volume cluster is evident at $76.50 and is acting as dynamic floor support. Resistance ahead is in the $78.81 to $79.00 zone. The price has turned bullish as it trades above the blue rising 2H trendline and in the clear $76.50 and $77.00 breakout channel from the recent swing lows.

Trade long here with a buy target of $78.81, stop loss $76.80.