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U.S. Dollar Moves Lower Amid Sell-Off In The Oil Markets: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jul 9, 2026, 17:42 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD gained ground as Germany's Exports exceeded analyst estimates.
  • GBP/USD moved higher, supported by falling oil prices.
  • USD/JPY pulled back amid falling Treasury yields.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts
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U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Declines

DXY 090726 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report and focus on the pullback in the oil markets.

The Initial Jobless Claims report indicated that 215,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 218,000.

Today, traders also focused on the Existing Home Sales report. The report showed that Existing Home Sales decreased by -2.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.7%.

Oil prices pulled back by -4% despite escalation in the Middle East. Falling oil prices put pressure on the American currency as demand for safe-haven assets declined.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 100.80 level, it will head towards the support at 100.50 – 100.65. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 101.80 – 101.95.

EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1420 – 1.1435

EUR/USD 090726 4h Chart

EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on Germany’s Exports report. The report indicated that Exports increased by +0.9% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of -0.3%.

If EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.1500 – 1.1515. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

GBP/USD Tests Multi-Week Highs

GBP/USD 090726 4h Chart

GBP/USD continues to move higher as traders focus on general weakness of the U.S. dollar and monitor dynamics of the oil markets.

If GBP/USD stays above the 1.3400 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. On the support side, a move below the support at 1.3335 – 1.3350 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

USD/CAD Retreats Amid Rally In Precious Metals Markets

USD/CAD 090726 4h Chart

USD/CAD is moving lower as traders react to the strong rebound in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.

The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.4010 – 1.4025.

USD/JPY Moves Lower As Treasury Yields Fall

USD/JPY 090726 4h Chart

USD/JPY is losing some ground as traders react to the pullback in Treasury yields, which was triggered by falling oil prices. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 4.53% level.

There are no signs of interventions from the Bank of Japan, and it looks that BoJ is not ready to provide additional support to the Japanese yen at current levels.

If USD/JPY pulls back below the support at 161.50 – 162.00, it will head towards recent lows near the 160.50 level. On the upside, a move above 162.80 will push USD/JPY towards the 165.00 level. It should be noted that USD/JPY has not traded at 165.00 since June 1986.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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