Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Dollar Strength, Fed Hold Weigh on Metals

Market Overview

Gold and silver extended their declines on Monday as improving global trade sentiment and a stronger U.S. Dollar continued to erode demand for safe-haven assets. Market optimism was buoyed by the finalization of a U.S.–Japan trade agreement and reported progress toward a broader deal with the European Union.

The shift in tone has increased investor appetite for risk, thereby weakening the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as gold.

“Safe-haven flows have moderated as the threat of trade escalation fades,” said Mark Sorenson, senior analyst at StoneBridge Capital. “Markets are moving toward a risk-on posture, particularly as economic indicators stabilize.”

Federal Reserve Outlook Weighs on Precious Metals

Gold and silver also face pressure from the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. With the central bank expected to keep rates steady this week, investors are focusing on the central bank’s forward guidance.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has firmed ahead of the meeting, reflecting confidence in a higher-for-longer rate environment. This has weighed on gold and silver, which typically struggle in periods of elevated real yields.

“Precious metals remain vulnerable under current monetary conditions,” noted Liz Wong, commodities strategist at HarborView. “Without a clear pivot from the Fed, there’s little reason for a sustained upside in gold or silver.”

Mixed Signals from Chinese Gold Demand

Latest data from the China Gold Association indicate that total gold consumption decreased by 3.5% in the first half of 2025.

Jewelry demand dropped sharply by 26% amid price sensitivity and volatility, but investment demand rose 24%, indicating continued interest in hedging among Chinese households and institutions.

The divergence underscores a growing trend in which investment flows are exerting greater influence on gold pricing than traditional consumer demand.

Looking Ahead: Fed and Geopolitics in Focus

Market participants are now watching the Federal Reserve’s statement for any shifts in tone that could affect expectations around future policy. At the same time, geopolitical developments remain a key variable.

Any resurgence in global tensions could reignite safe-haven buying and reverse the current trend in gold and silver markets.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,337, testing a key ascending trendline that has supported the price since late June. The recent decline has pushed the metal below both the 50-day EMA ($3,369.76) and the 100-day EMA ($3,366.72), highlighting a shift in short-term momentum.

Sellers have regained control following a failed attempt to hold above the $3,374 resistance zone. If the trendline holds, a rebound could target the $3,360–$3,374 area.

However, a break below the rising support could expose gold to further downside, with $3,309 and $3,283 as the following key zones. The structure remains vulnerable as long as the price remains below the short-term moving averages.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading at $38.16 after a sharp decline below both the 50-day EMA ($38.82) and 100-day EMA ($38.57), signaling an apparent loss of bullish momentum.

The breakdown also violated the ascending trendline and key horizontal support at $38.41, turning the short-term structure bearish. Sellers now have control, and the following support levels to watch are $37.62 and $37.23.

If silver reclaims $38.41, it may attempt a recovery; however, broader momentum remains weak as long as it stays below the moving averages.