The Day Ahead: Markets Eye Today’s Earnings Wave, Fed Meeting, and Inflation Data

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures edged higher early Monday as traders digested a newly announced U.S.-EU trade deal and braced for one of the busiest weeks of the year.

Dow futures rose 38 points (+0.08%), S&P 500 futures added 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.34%. Optimism from tariff reductions was tempered by caution around record equity levels and an upcoming flood of catalysts.

On Friday, the Dow gained 208.01 points to 44,901.92 (+0.47%), the S&P 500 advanced 0.40% to 6,388.64—its fifth straight record close, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.24% to 21,108.32, marking its 15th record high this year. Sentiment was lifted by upbeat earnings, stronger capital investment trends, and bullish AI commentary.

This week features over 150 S&P 500 earnings, a key Fed meeting, inflation data, and the July jobs report.

Key Economic Releases

No major U.S. economic data is scheduled for Monday. However, the rest of the week is packed:

• Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings
• Wednesday: ADP Private Payrolls, Q2 GDP (forecast: +2.3%, prior: -0.5%)
• Thursday: June PCE Index (Core YoY: 2.7%, Headline YoY: 2.5%; MoM: 0.3%)
• Friday: July Non-Farm Payrolls (+102K est., prior: +147K), Unemployment Rate (4.2% est., prior: 4.1%)

Each release may sway rate cut expectations for the Fed’s September decision, especially the PCE and payroll data.

Notable Earnings

Today’s highlights include:

Pre-market:

• Bank of Hawaii (BOH): $1.06 est
• Enterprise Products (EPD): $0.64
• Revvity (RVTY): $1.14

After-hours:

• Ameris Bancorp (ABCB): $1.33
• Cadence Design (CDNS): $1.56
• Hartford Financial (HIG): $2.83
• Nucor (NUE): $2.55
• Universal Health (UHS): $4.92
• Waste Management (WM): $1.90
• Whirlpool (WHR): $1.79
• Woodward (WWD): $1.63

Tech heavyweights Meta and Microsoft report Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple Thursday.

Central Bank Activity

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, with the decision due Wednesday. No rate change is expected (target range 4.25%–4.50%), but traders will closely watch for signals on a potential September cut.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini last traded at 6,434.50. Resistance lies at 6,450.00 and 6,457.75. Support levels are at 6,318.75, followed by the 50-day moving average at 6,152.20, then 6,011.81 (200-day MA).

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini printed 23,490.00. Resistance is at 23,520.00. Key supports are at 23,108.00, then 22,387.60 (50-day MA) and 21,430.46 (200-day MA).

The Dow E-mini sits at 45,119.00. Resistance levels are 45,234.00, 45,885.00, and 46,326.00. Support stands at 44,423.00, then 43,624.00 (50-day MA) and 43,604.00 (200-day MA).

Outlook

Traders face a packed calendar with tech earnings, inflation, and labor data all poised to shift Fed policy expectations. Positioning is cautious as indexes hover near all-time highs. Forward guidance from mega caps and PCE figures will likely dictate direction into month-end.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.