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Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Breaks $4,466 as Silver Plummets Below $74 — Support or More Pain?
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Key Points:
- The US-Iran ceasefire has now held for over six weeks with steady progress on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gold slid to $4,466.52, breaking lower inside its blue descending channel with strong bearish continuation.
- Silver plummeted to $74.06 after breaking key supports and red MA with multiple bearish engulfing candles.
- China’s People’s Bank of China has sustained gold purchases for more than 17 consecutive months, providing solid long-term support.
Gold and Silver Move Sideways Amid Inflation Numbers and Ceasefire News
Gold and silver saw minimal trading activity on May 20, 2026, as traders weighed in April’s strong U.S. inflation data, as well as the continued sustainability of the partial U.S.-Iran ceasefire. April’s higher-then expected U.S. CPI numbers, including both the top-line and core prints, has slightly dampened near-term Fed rate cut expectations, leading to a rise in real rates and the U.S. dollar, while limiting gains on precious metals.
Central bank buying remains a strong positive for gold, with China’s PBOC buying for more than 17 straight months and the trend extending across other emerging market central banks. Silver has more industrial demand, and while there’s less safe haven flow than last month, strong global supply shortages have led to a robust market. This includes a continued high demand for solar, EVs, electronics and AI demand, despite low energy prices.
With the ongoing ceasefire and slow normalization of oil, both gold and silver are moving toward a more fundamental basis with the Fed speakers this week to be noted.
Gold Spot Dips to $4,466, a Blue Descending Channel Rejection
Gold Spot is trading at $4,466.52 after rejecting at red 50-period MA near $4,669 on the 2h chart. A confluence of red resistance is visible there near 0.786 Fib. Gold respect blue descending channel off highs of May while printing lower highs and a accelerating pace to the downside below $4,600 pivot. Bearish engulfing wicks confirm seller control and fair value not seen on volume profile above $4,538. 45 in RSI suggests no oversold reversal.
Gold will test $4,537 0.236 Fib, then extend to $4,481 support. Resistance at $4,572 to $4,629. Bearish structure below $4,600 in extended blue descending channel.
Trade Idea: Sell $4,466 target $4,503, stop $4,538.
Silver Spot Plummets to $74.06 on Red Breakdown
Silver spot is trading at $74.06 on the 2h chart after a red candles break below red MA near $77.75 and below short-term Fib supports. Multiple bearish engulfing bodies from $78.92 high accelerate lower with strong distribution on volume profile.
The structure is intact in a bearish channel marked in blue with a series of lower lows. RSI drops below 40 and indicates a loss of momentum. Volume profile indicates seller pressure with $77 to $78 as an failed supply level. Blue trendline of $73.90 will hold as temporary support. Targeting at $72.58 1.272 Fib followed by downside extension at $70.85.
Trade Idea: Sell $74.06 target $72.58, stop $75.00.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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