Gold Vs. Bitcoin: BTC Gains Momentum as XAUUSD Struggles After Iran War

Gold (XAU) and Bitcoin (BTC) are sending two different messages following the U.S.-Iran war. Treasury yields have increased, inflation is back on the radar and energy prices have surged. This environment put pressure on gold and silver (XAG) prices. But Bitcoin is heading in the opposite direction with better liquidity and increased appetite for risk. This will create an important change in the market.

Gold is struggling below the support while Bitcoin is attempting to establish a bottom above $60,000. The key question now is whether this rotation from precious metals into Bitcoin will continue or whether gold will soon stabilize and prepare for next rally.

Gold Weakens as Bitcoin Gains Post-War Momentum

The gold and silver prices remain under pressure after the U.S.-Iran war. The escalation of the crisis over the Strait of Hormuz has driven global energy prices higher. This surge has driven inflation into the economy and increased expectations of further inflation in the next few months. Higher inflation has increased expectations of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

The expectations of the Fed reducing interest rates in 2026 have dropped significantly, as per the FedWatch tool. This has pushed U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. The surge in Treasury yields has kept gold and silver prices under pressure.

But Bitcoin prices have gained strong momentum after the U.S.-Iran war as seen in the chart below. The chart shows that gold has been moving opposite since the last quarter of 2025. When the U.S.-Iran war started, gold prices dropped significantly and remained well below the war level. Bitcoin prices found support around the long term 50,000 to 60,000 range and then rebounded above $80,000.

This rebound in Bitcoin prices was due to improved liquidity as seen by the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index which dropped to -0.524.

This surge in Bitcoin above $80,000 signals an aggressive risk taking stance. But prices must remain above $70,000 to keep short term bullish trend alive. A break below $70,000 will indicate further market risk aversion.

Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Shows Rotation Away from Gold

The formation of a bearish trend in the gold market from the $5,600 level and the turn in Bitcoin prices from the $50,000 to $60,000 support zone are due to the strong recovery in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio.

The chart below shows that when the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio marked a high in August 2025, the gold price broke above $3,500, and Bitcoin prices topped at $126,000. When the ratio produced a bottom in March 2026, gold prices hit the $4,100 support, and Bitcoin hit the $60,000 support.

The strong recovery in the ratio suggests that Bitcoin prices may try to remain strong in the short term. But gold prices may consolidate to find support soon.

This is further evident in the bullish trend in the Bitcoin to gold ratio, which shows the formation of an ascending channel pattern. The chart also shows strong support around the 13 level. The recovery in March and April suggests that the ratio may continue to trend higher toward 20 in June and July. This will likely keep Bitcoin prices stronger while gold prices may consolidate to find nearest bottom.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bottom Formation Continues Above $60,000

The chart below shows that the Bitcoin prices are moving towards the $70,000 to $75,000 support area. If Bitcoin prices hold this support zone, then another rally towards $85,000 may initiate.

However, a break below the $70,000 level will offer another drop towards the $60,000 level which is the long-term support area.

Bitcoin prices must break above $100,000 to confirm a bottom and initiate the next surge in the Bitcoin market. Overall, Bitcoin prices remain in the consolidation zone in the short term and continue to form a bottom between $50,000 and $60,000.

Bottom Line

Gold continues to feel the pressure as the U.S.-Iran conflict has continued to drive up energy prices, inflation concerns, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. This kind of environment decreases the demand for precious metals in the short term. But if the Bitcoin to gold ratio keeps increasing and the gold remains above $4,000, it will likely form a bottom for the next rally. But the higher inflation and US Treasury yields remain the main risk.

Bitcoin appears stronger than gold after the US-Iran war due to the higher liquidity and risk appetite. The immediate support in Bitcoin remains the $70,000-$75,000 zone. A recovery above $100,000 is required to confirm the bottom in the Bitcoin market. But a break below $70,000 will signal further downside to $60,000. If the bitcoin to gold ratio breaks below the 12 level, it will likely put bearish pressure on the bitcoin prices.

Read more: Gold vs. Silver vs. Bitcoin: Key Ratios Signal a Major BTC Bottom