XRP (XRP) has shed 25% of its value in 2026 and is now risking a much bigger drop as the market dumped the token right after it hit $1.50.
In the past 24 hours, long liquidations have spiked to nearly $670 million, indicating an ongoing long squeeze.
Interestingly, long liquidations for XRP increased to their highest levels since February. Back then, the token also experienced a similar retreat after hitting $1.50 and collapsed to $1.27 at some point just a few days later.
This has been the result of multiple key resistance rejections across the crypto market, like Ethereum (ETH) struggling to move past $2,400 and Solana (SOL) retreating after hitting $90.
Trading volumes for XRP have jumped by 90% in the past day, but they remain relatively low if expressed as a percentage of the token’s circulating market cap.
This indicates that the selling pressure is accelerating, but not yet to the point of signaling a complete shift in market sentiment.
During the first quarter of 2026, it appears that Goldman Sachs exited its entire position in XRP, according to data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Goldman could be fearing a deeper correction if the token breaks its current consolidation pattern.
Similarly, the American investment bank also cut its exposure to Solana (SOL) during the first three months of the year.
Until last week, XRP net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) had been positive throughout this entire month. However, this weekend’s sustained drop could turn the tables and prompt investors to pull money out.
Data from SoSoValue shows that XRP ETFs received strong inflows on Thursday and Friday, amounting to $28 million. Thursday’s inflows were actually the highest since February 6.
Despite these strong inflows, market sentiment has soured once again. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Fear and Greed Index hit its highest level since October at 62. Now, this sentiment gauge has dropped to 38, meaning that investors’ attitude has shifted from Greed to Fear once again in a relatively short period.
This reflects persistent volatility and investors’ skepticism of the latest rally. If cascade liquidations accelerate, the odds that this could turn into the resumption of a bear market would rise dramatically.
We continue to be bullish in the mid-term, but we can’t ignore this strong retreat off key resistance, as it signals that investors might not be ready yet to pay higher prices.
We have been keeping track of a buy signal in the weekly chart that has popped up 3 times already in the past 6 years. In all of these instances, the price has rallied for weeks, delivering interest gains to those who bought once the signal showed up.
The signal consisted of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 30. This marked a pivotal moment for the market and prompted buyers to step in. The gains ranged from 200% to 1,480%, and the pattern has a 100% win rate during this study period.
This gives us the confidence to say that we are either at or near a cycle bottom for XRP at around $1.15. That creates room for a 5% drop if bearish momentum accelerates over the next few days, but the downside risk is quite small compared to the upside potential of this high-time-frame (HFT) signal.
Now that the RSI has crossed above the signal line, we have confirmation that momentum has flipped from bearish to bullish. This has been a reliable “buy” signal in the past, and two of the last three times it has marked the beginning of XRP’s next leg up.
That said, in one of these instances, the price spent months consolidating in a tight range before it finally surged to its local peak around 12 months later.
Heading to the daily chart, the price action clearly rejected a move above $1.50 on May 14. The selling pressure quickly accelerated after that rejection and could end up pushing the token to the $1.32 support over the next few days.
That means a 3.6% downside potential, and would further confirm that XRP is still in consolidation mode. The RSI currently sits at 43, which means that bearish momentum is increasing. If it drops below 40, that would provide a first “sell” signal.
Paired with a bearish breakout below $1.32, the odds of a much bigger drop to $1.13 would increase dramatically. This translates into a total downside risk of 18% based on where XRP is trading now.
Our signals system has not picked up any meaningful activity that leads us to believe that this latest movement is backed by institutional or whale-level volumes.
As we move down to the 4-hour chart, we did see a sell signal in this lower time frame right after the token retreated off the $1.50 level. This confirms that we should be heading to $1.32 at least over the next few days.
Our signals system spots a specific candle pattern that, paired with above-average volumes, produces a high-conviction buy and sell opportunity. The higher the time frame, the more reliable these signals are.
Since we don’t have recent signals in the weekly or daily time frames, the next best thing is the 4-hour chart. The last signal was a “sell”, hence we are bearish in the short-term. However, in the mid-term, we are sticking to the “buy” signal we spotted in the weekly chart as its win rate is quite high.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.