Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Smashes $4,650 as Silver Explodes Above $76 — Continuation?

Gold & Silver Steady as Ceasefire Holds – Focus Shifts to US Inflation Data

Gold & Silver just didn’t seem to know which way to go on Wednesday – investors were weighing up whether the US-Iran ceasefire would stick, and then their attention swung round to the upcoming US inflation figures. This peace deal which has let tanker traffic trickle back through the Strait of Hormuz has been steadily eating away at that big spike in gold prices we saw back in March & April, when people were worried sick about the Middle East.

Now while its true that no major incidents have happened, and that’s helped things stay pretty calm, the analysts are still saying that getting things back to normal completely is a long way off, and that this truce is still on pretty shaky ground. Which means that gold is only just holding on to a bit of support, because people still see it as a safe bet in the long term.

Central banks are still buying in big – particulary China, which has been going steady for over 17 months now. Silver is a bit different – its got a big industrial side to it, so its getting pulled in different directions by what’s happening with manufacturing, and there’s still a supply problem.

Now all eyes are on the US inflation figures to see what the Fed might do next. Longer term though, these metals are still benefiting from people spreading their risk, and also from people hedging their bets against inflation. But in the short term, its going to be all about what happens with the global economy, and what’s going on in the Middle East.

Gold Spot Breaks $4,650 Resistance – Blue Channel Retest in Play

Gold at $4,679 is currently shining on the 4h chart, steamrolling past the 50-period red moving average, as well as those prior swing highs with a string of intensely green engulfing candles. Price has taken back the lower blue trendline from Aprils highs while painting higher lows above that $4,646 support line. And we can see the 61.8% Fib retracement level from the May low is now cleared at $4,679 – that RSI is creeping its way up to 58 too – which still indicates building momentum without overbuying the thing just yet.

Above $4,679, price is looking good for higher highs. And we can see overhead resistance clinging on at those heavy clusters around $4,713 – $4,771. Its also worth noting the volume profile is now highlighting $4,650 as the new floor to beat. As long as price keeps hold of its spot in that broader range thing we have turning positive.

Trade Idea: Buy in at $4,679 – targeting $4,713 – with a stop loss set at $4,646.

Silver Spot Explodes Above $76 – Momentum Shift in Down-Channel

Silver is now trading at $76.18 on the 2h chart – with a string of green candles rocketing higher – and it has now broken this red moving average resistance, that blue trendline that was holding it back, and its built in good old fashioned bullishly engulfing candle too. Price has held onto that $74.55 Fib support line, building some higher lows too. And that RSI has shot up above sixty – all good signs of good strong momentum here.

Next up for silver are those targets of $76.96 and then $78.00 where that white trendline is waiting. The most recent action shows silver rejecting the lower channel with the volume supporting this break out move. Flip to positive for silver as long as it stays above all the key MAs.

Trade Idea: Buy in at $76.15 – targeting $78.00 – with a stop loss set at $75.40.