Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Middle East Tensions vs. Fed – Who Wins Gold?

Market Overview

Gold hit an intraday high near $4,867, but then pulled back a bit to $4,841, still trading up around 0.47% – and that’s largely thanks to safe-haven demand helping to offset the Fed still looking pretty hawkish. Meanwhile, the US dollar was taking a breather after its recent sprint – which helped out gold prices a bit in the short term, even though the outlook for the dollar is still looking pretty solid.

The Bureau of Labor’s February PPI numbers came in at 0.7% for the month and a whopping 3.4% for the year, which is the strongest annual increase we’ve seen in 12 months – all of which adds to the Fed’s worries about inflation. And as a result, Fed officials are now saying they think they can only really cut rates once this year and another in 2027, while also bumping up their expectations for 2026 economic growth and warning that higher energy prices could really throw a wrench into things.

Tensions in the Middle East are ramping up – with word of strikes affecting the Gulf energy infrastructure and concerns about the South Pars gas field – all of which has jacked up oil prices and really put pressure on people’s nerves – but ironically, that’s actually helped to give gold a bit of a boost.

Silver’s a different story, though – it’s down to around $74.47 and slipping about 1.14% as the dollar seems to be holding its ground and investment interest seems to be waning. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for the latest updates from central banks and other key US data points – like jobless claims and the Philly Fed index – to see where the markets go from here.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Slides Below $4,859 as Bears Eye $4,756 Support

Gold on the 4-hour chart is hovering just above the 4823 mark after suddenly giving way to a crucial breakdown below that support level of 4869, sending the price plummeting downwards at a rapid pace. This decisive move is a clear sign that the rejection from that down trending line has come to fruition, and the bears are currently firmly in the driving seat. Things have taken a nosedive since that $5,238 peak.

Immediate support levels are looking pretty fragile – $4756 is the first major hurdle, followed by the lower one at $4654. If the price can’t find a footing at one of these levels then $4500 wont be far behind. The RSI is hovering close to that oversold zone, which might just spark a short-term bounce – but momentum is currently looking pretty negative, so this is all speculative.

Any attempt at an uptick back to $4964 will ultimately come up against serious resistance unless the price can somehow claw its way back above that down trending line and restore some semblance of a bullish trend.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Breaks $77 Support as Downtrend Accelerates

On the 4-hour chart, Silver is currently trading around $73.53 after a pretty clear break below the $77.09 support level & tearing up the rising trend line that had held up prices since early February. This move really seals the deal on a bearish turn in the charts – we’re seeing lower highs that are all taking place under this dominant descending trend line from that high of $95.

Prices still sit below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages – so all the momentum is still pointing downwards. We’ve got some immediate support at $71.90, then $68.08 after that. And with the RSI just hovering around the 30 mark, it’s looking fairly oversold but not quite ready to call a buy signal.

Getting back above $77 would probably need to happen to calm things down with Silver. Till then, though, rallies that take us towards $81.69 are probably just going to be sold back down again.