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Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Range-Bound Ahead of Bostic, Goolsbee Speech
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Key Points:
- Gold rises above $3,288 as traders price in a 74% chance of a Fed rate cut by September amid cooling U.S. data.
- Silver trades near $36.16, with price capped below the 50-EMA; direction hinges on Fed policy clarity and volume breakout.
- U.S. personal income dropped 0.4% in May—the sharpest since 2021—reinforcing bets on a dovish Fed policy shift.
Market Overview
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 74% probability of a rate cut by September, with a second move priced in before the end of the year.
ING strategists noted that “Fed communication is increasingly constrained by the data,” adding to speculation that the window for easing is widening. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index declined by 0.2%, increasing the appeal of metals priced in dollars.
Geopolitical Calm Narrows Upside Scope
The rally in Gold and Silver is tempered by easing geopolitical tensions. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, along with progress on U.S. trade negotiations, has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
Analysts say improved risk sentiment is encouraging traders to trim positions after strong monthly gains. Gold has added more than 5% since early June.
Fed Commentary Ahead May Steer Short-Term Direction
Attention now turns to speeches by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. Traders are seeking signals on whether policymakers view the current economic slowdown as sufficient to justify near-term rate cuts.
Until the Fed’s position becomes clearer, price movements in Gold and Silver will likely reflect sensitivity to incoming data and evolving central bank messaging, particularly ahead of the July 9 trade policy deadline.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold holds above $3,288 while Silver hovers near $36.16 as traders await Fedspeak to guide rate cut bets and market direction.
Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is stabilizing near $3,288 after rebounding from the $3,246 support zone, which aligns with both a horizontal base and rising trendline. The price is holding below the 50-EMA ($3,330) and 200-EMA ($3,323), signaling that broader momentum remains neutral to bearish.
A close above $3,310 could shift bias toward $3,350 and $3,393. However, failure to stay above $3,246 risks exposing $3,215 and $3,185 next. The reaction at this support zone marks a key technical inflection point, with buyers defending structure but still lacking volume confirmation.
Traders should monitor EMA pressure and price behavior near $3,310 for short-term direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver (XAG/USD) is holding above the $35.90 support level after bouncing from the rising trendline and 200-EMA confluence. The current price at $36.16 is pressing against the 50-EMA ($36.20), which has capped upside momentum during recent sessions.
A sustained move above this level could target $36.82; however, failure to break higher may keep the price oscillating between $35.90 and $36.82. The broader structure shows a series of higher lows, but repeated resistance tests suggest tightening conditions.
If bulls lose the $35.90 level, downside could open toward $35.27. Direction remains dependent on the next clean breakout or breakdown around the EMA band.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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