Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Risk Premium Fades — Can Gold Hit $4,771 & Silver Reach $82?

Gold and Silver Take a Breath As Ceasefire Holds – Now Back to the Everyday Issues

Gold and silver meandered along on May 8, 2026, with not a lot of conviction, as the U.S. – Iran ceasefire – now a month old – remains intact and even getting some of the oil tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz again. That’s meant the super high-risk premium that sent both metals soaring in March and into April is fading fast, so its time to start taking a closer look at the bigger picture – the fundamentals.

Central banks are still pretty keen on gold. Chinas People’s Bank of China is still buying, month in month out, now 17 months in a row, and other developing country institutions are starting to diversify their investments too. Even as the mood of the markets improves that’s still giving gold a pretty solid floor to trade from.

Silver is caught between things easing up on the safe haven front and the fact that there’s still a dent in supply. The solar energy, electronics and electric vehicles sectors are keeping demand high, even if cheaper energy is taking a bit of the heat out of some of the inflation worries.

Now that Middle East tensions have died down a bit, everyone’s getting a bit more focused on the next big event – the US inflation numbers and what the Federal Reserve is thinking of doing next. Both metals still have long term appeal as a bit of a safety net for investors and protection against inflation – but how they do in the short term will depend on how well this Middle East ceasefire holds and what the rest of the economy is up to.

Gold Spot Holds $4,722 – It’s a Blue Channel Retest with a Much More Bullish Picture than you’d Expect

Gold is sitting at $4,722.10 on its 2 hour chart – and so far its holding up well after those sharp green reversal candles from the low of $4,707. In fact, that red moving average that was bearing down on it has now turned around and become a support level (congrats to gold for turning that around). That’s all thanks to the higher lows which are still forming – a sign that the buyers are still calling the shots.

You’ll also have noticed that the RSI is holding its ground near 55 – and that’s with a positive divergence forming over on the 2 hour chart too. A lot of the overhead resistance that was holding it back is still there – that all hangs out at $4,771-$4,832 (previous swing zone).

Meanwhile volume profile has us looking at $4,715 as a real pivot point – the fact that buyers are stepping in here helps explain why gold is holding above the channel.

Trade Idea: Your call is to buy at $4,722 targeting $4,771 – and give yourself a stop loss back at $4,707.

Silver Spot Breaks $80.61 – Bullish Channel Breakout Has Finally Been Confirmed

Silver is now trading at $80.61 on its 2 hour chart – soaring with a string of strong green candles that have now cleared that stubborn red 50-period moving average and the blue trend line that’s been blocking it for so long. Price is making higher highs and higher lows – all signs of a major break out from its multi week consolidation. Bear in mind though that this is a bullish continuation pattern – not the start of something new.

The RSI is climbing rapidly towards 65 and while that does show a lot of momentum – its not quite as extreme as you’d see in other situations. Next up we have a Fib extension based on the low in May – have a look at where that’s pointing – you’ll see $82.00 – $83.03 is the target range. With the white trend line from early May acting like a dynamic support level at $78.70 – a lot of upside is still available.

Volume profile tells us that there’s been a lot of buying at $78 and now $80 is starting to act as a strong floor. All in all a decisively bullish setup for silver that starts right above $78.26 – from which point all lower channel retracement attempts are pretty much a no-go.

Trade Idea: If you want to buy at $80.61 then a target of $82.00 looks sensible – and give yourself a stop loss at $79.80.