Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Sideways Range Persists as Traders Await Fed Signals

Market Overview

Gold and silver edged higher on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened from a recent four-month peak and mixed economic data raised doubts about the strength of the American recovery.

The latest figures pointed to a slowing but still resilient services sector, keeping safe-haven demand for precious metals intact amid market uncertainty.

Dollar Retreats After Data Misses Expectations

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) slipped 0.2% following a string of data that hinted at easing momentum. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report showed private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, above expectations of 32,000 but well below historical averages.

Meanwhile, ISM Services PMI registered 52.4, easing from last month’s 50.0 but still signaling modest expansion. The Final Services PMI came in slightly weaker at 54.8, suggesting service activity is steady but losing momentum.

Rising Oil Stocks Add to Growth Concerns

Adding to investor caution, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 5.2 million-barrel increase in crude inventories, reversing prior drawdowns and signaling weaker demand from refiners.

“Energy stock builds often indicate softening consumption trends, which could trickle into slower industrial activity,” said a New York-based commodities strategist.

Precious Metals Benefit from Broader Market Uncertainty

With Treasury yields stabilizing and the dollar’s rally pausing, gold and silver attracted renewed interest from investors seeking protection against economic volatility.

Persistent fiscal gridlock and a prolonged government shutdown have clouded the policy outlook, leading traders to reassess the pace of future rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

Analysts See Scope for More Upside

“Gold remains supported by an uncertain growth outlook and shifting Fed expectations,” said one analyst at Haitong International. “If services and labor indicators continue to soften, the market may see fresh inflows into defensive assets like gold and silver.”

Overall, the latest U.S. data underline a fragile balance—growth remains positive, but cracks are widening in labor and services activity, helping precious metals regain their footing as investors weigh potential shifts in monetary policy.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $3,965 and $4,145, supported by a weaker dollar and steady safe-haven demand, while silver may range from $47.70 to $50.80 amid improving momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $4,007, reclaiming ground above its 200-EMA at $3,956 and testing resistance near the 50-EMA at $4,005. The metal is consolidating in a narrow range between $3,965 and $4,045, showing indecision ahead of key U.S. data.

A sustained move above $4,045 could open the way toward $4,145 and $4,250, while a drop below $3,965 might expose $3,887 and $3,791. RSI near 56 signals balanced momentum with mild upside bias, suggesting buyers are gradually regaining control.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $48.48, breaking above its descending trendline and the 50-EMA at $48.25, signaling improving short-term momentum. The next resistance sits at $49.35, while key support lies around $47.75 and $47.54 near the 200-EMA.

A sustained move above $49.35 could target $50.83 and $52.72, whereas failure to hold $47.70 may pull prices back toward $46.00. The RSI around 56 suggests steady buying strength without signs of exhaustion.

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