Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Triangle Tightens as Market Awaits Fed Pivot

Market Overview

Gold prices hovered near $3,219 in early Monday trade, slipping from an intraday high of $3,240 as the yellow metal failed to maintain upward momentum. Despite weaker U.S. economic data and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold remained under pressure amid rising Treasury yields and diminishing safe-haven demand.

The downward drift comes after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing an unsustainable debt trajectory. This downgrade followed the enactment of a new tax cut bill and triggered a wave of selling in U.S. government bonds.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields surged above 4.5%, weighing on gold, which offers no yield. Since peaking above $3,500 in April, gold has retreated more than 7%, reflecting shifts in market sentiment.

Silver Holds Steady, But Lacks Breakout Momentum

Silver (XAG/USD) traded around $32.39, showing resilience but limited upside. Like gold, silver faces headwinds from a stronger dollar and elevated bond yields. However, the metal has found modest support as expectations mount for Fed easing in the second half of the year.

“Traders are weighing rising yields against a softer inflation backdrop and geopolitical noise,” noted a commodities strategist at KCM Trade. “Until we get a decisive Fed pivot, metals are likely to remain rangebound.”

Silver’s performance mirrors a cautious tone in metals markets, where investors are recalibrating positions amid macro crosswinds.

Mixed Signals: Trade Optimism vs. Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risks remain unresolved, with rising tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East helping to underpin gold’s floor. Over the weekend, Russia launched its largest drone strike on Ukraine since 2022, escalating concerns about regional security.

Simultaneously, trade optimism is chipping away at risk-averse sentiment. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked that “several nations are signaling readiness for fair trade arrangements,” easing fears of an imminent recession. This shift in narrative is reducing investor appetite for traditional safe-havens like gold.

Markets are currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts by early 2025, with Fed Funds futures implying a 50-basis-point easing cycle. For now, the weakening dollar offers partial support for gold, but with no clear breakout in sight, metals remain in a holding pattern.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold hovers near $3,219, testing key resistance, while silver compresses inside a triangle. Both metals face pivotal levels, with breakout or breakdown likely to define near-term momentum and direction.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is hovering at $3,219 after reclaiming its 50-EMA ($3,208), testing both the moving average and descending trendline resistance. The price briefly pierced above $3,252 but quickly pulled back, forming a potential lower high and hinting at lingering bearish pressure. This convergence of EMA and trendline makes $3,219 a pivotal battleground.

If bulls manage a clean break above $3,252, it opens a path toward $3,290 and $3,347. But if price slips back below $3,207, momentum could unwind toward $3,163 or even $3,119. Candlesticks show indecision—short bodies and long upper wicks—suggesting supply is still active overhead.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading at $32.39 and wedging tightly within a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs pressing against resistance around $32.69 and higher lows creeping up from $32.08. The 50-EMA at $32.34 is acting as a temporary pivot, and price just reclaimed it after a clean bounce from trendline support.

This compression signals a potential breakout. A bullish break above $32.69 would target $32.93 and $33.24, while a drop below $32.08 could lead to a slide toward $31.86 or $31.66. Candlesticks are showing long wicks and small bodies, which often precede volatile moves.