Gold (XAUUSD) Consolidates in Ascending Triangle as Silver Eyes Breakout Above $37

Gold (XAUUSD) price is facing near-term pressure following stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. The June report showed a gain of 147,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations and aligning with the 12-month average.

Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, defying predictions of a rise. These figures indicate continued labour market resilience, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July. As a result, the stronger labour data weakens the case for aggressive monetary easing, limiting gold’s upside as rate cut expectations fade.

However, the weak ADP Employment Change report, which showed a surprise decline of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, introduces uncertainty. This divergence between private payrolls and broader employment figures may raise concerns about potential inconsistencies in the labour market’s strength. If investors grow cautious about future job growth, demand for gold as a safe haven could resurface.

Additionally, declines in the service sector, especially in professional and business services, reflect underlying economic soft spots that could eventually weigh on the broader employment outlook.

Moreover, political uncertainty is another supportive factor for gold. Doubts surrounding the approval of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” by the July 4 deadline have added to market anxiety. Any disruption in fiscal stimulus or delayed economic policy action could dampen risk sentiment, prompting investors to shift toward safe-haven assets, such as gold.

On the other hand, Trump’s new deal with Vietnam, which introduces tariff asymmetry, brings a mixed impact. While the zero-tariff access for US goods may bolster exports, the 20% and 40% tariffs on Vietnamese imports could escalate trade friction in the region.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Consolidation within Ascending Triangle

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating within an ascending triangle. The price corrected lower following the release of the unemployment data. However, a rebound developed from the support level after the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. The ongoing consolidation within the triangle may lead to increased volatility over time. Despite this, the price remains above the 50-day SMA, indicating underlying bullish strength.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Price Action

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating within the $3,250 to $3,430 range. However, the consolidation has formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern above the $3,250 level. This pattern suggests that the price may continue to rise, targeting the $3,400 to $3,500 region. Moreover, the RSI is range-bound, indicating further consolidation in the days ahead.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Bullish Price Action above $35

The daily chart for spot silver (XAG) indicates that the price is forming a strong bullish pattern, with a rounded-up trend above the $35 area. The formation of an Adam and Eve pattern above the bull-bear line, followed by consolidation between the $33.60 and $31.60 range and a breakout from the $35 region, indicates strong bullish momentum. Moreover, the ongoing consolidation below the $37 level and the rejection near the $35.30 area further increase the likelihood of an upside breakout in silver.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Momentum

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows that the price is forming a bullish structure above the orange zone, suggesting a likely upside breakout. A break above the $37 level would initiate the next strong upward move. The RSI indicates that the price has found support near the 30 level, reinforcing the potential for an upside breakout.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index rebounded from oversold levels, as indicated by the RSI, following the release of employment data. However, this rebound is likely to be limited by resistance levels. The rebound may trigger another wave of selling pressure in the US Dollar Index. This selling pressure is supported by the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern, as the price remains below the 50-day SMA.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is trading within a descending channel and remains below the 100.50 level. The rebound from the channel support is limited and remains confined within the channel. This rebound is likely to trigger another wave of selling pressure in the US Dollar.