Hang Seng Index News: Bulls Eye 24,500 as China GDP Beats Forecasts, Tech Stocks Rally

Hang Seng Holds Gains as GDP Numbers Signal a Resilient Chinese Economy

Hopes of last-minute trade deals bolstered demand for US-listed stocks. Meanwhile, better-than-expected GDP numbers from China limited the impact of weaker retail sales data on the Hang Seng Index.

On Tuesday, July 15, the Hang Seng Index extended gains from Monday. Electric vehicle (EV) and tech stocks offset losses across the real estate sector.

Key upcoming US inflation data, trade developments, and central bank policy guidance will continue to influence sentiment. These factors may determine if the Index retests support at 24,000 or resistance at 24,500.

Hang Seng Index Advances as China Economy Shows Resilience

US equity markets posted gains on Monday, July 14 as market focus turned to upcoming US inflation and corporate earnings. Reports of ongoing US trade talks with key trading partners contributed to the gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.27%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index climbed 0.21% to 24,253 in early trading on July 15.

However, Mainland China markets retreated amid concerns about weaker domestic consumption and the potential effects of a proxy trade war on external demand. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index posted losses of 0.50% and 0.93%, respectively.

EV and Tech Stocks Offset Real Estate Sector Losses

Overnight reports of NVIDIA (NVDA) planning to resume H20 chip sales to China fueled demand for EV and tech stocks. CN Wire reported:

“This month, CEP Jensen Huang met with President Trump, US policymakers, reaffirming NVIDIA’s support for administration efforts to create jobs. NVIDIA to resume H20 sales to China, announces new full compliant GPU for China. US Government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon.”

Tech giants Alibaba (9888) and Baidu (9988) advanced 1.60% and 0.53% in morning trading, lifting the Hang Seng TECH Index 0.40%. Meanwhile, EV stocks Geely Auto (0175) and Li Auto (2015) rose 0.78% and 0.81%, respectively.

However, a monthly fall in China’s house prices in June weighed on the real estate sector. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index slid 1.7%.

China’s GDP Numbers Top Estimates, But Retail Spending Slows

Economic data from China influenced market sentiment on July 15. China’s economy expanded by 5.2% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2, above Beijing’s 5% growth target but slightly below Q1’s 5.4%. Industrial production trends aligned with June’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI, rising 6.8% YoY in June, up from 5.8% in May.

However, retail sales increased 4.8% YoY in June, slowing from May’s 6.4%, signaling weaker domestic demand. The pullback in consumer spending could intensify price wars, further impacting company profits. Nevertheless, Beijing’s recent pledge to bolster the labor market and hopes of fresh stimulus amid tariff uncertainties limited the impact of the data on Hong Kong-listed stocks.

Meanwhile, new home prices fell in June despite a slower year-over-year decline.

Markets Await Key US Economic Data and Earnings

While economic data from China and the latest tariff news influenced Hong Kong and Mainland markets, upcoming US inflation data and earnings could impact sentiment.

Economists expect the US annual inflation rate to accelerate from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June. The numbers may reflect the effects of tariffs, potentially delaying Fed rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed policy stance would likely weigh on rate-sensitive Hong Kong-listed stocks.

On the earnings calendar, US banking giants Citigroup (C.), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) will release results later today.

Technical Setup: 24,500 Resistance or 24,000 Support?

On July 15, the Hang Seng Index traded above its July congestion zone and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.

Fresh policy announcements from Beijing or progress toward a US-China trade agreement could send the Index toward the July 15 high of 24,556. Sustained buying pressure may enable the bulls to target the March high of 24,874. Conversely, a drop below 24,000 could bring the 50-day EMA and the 23,500 level into play.

Hang Seng Technical Outlook

• Resistance: 24,556 and then 24,874.
• Support: 24,000, then the 50-day EMA at 23,653 and 23,500.
• Short-term Bias: Bullish but contingent on trade developments, US inflation, Fed rhetoric, and Beijing’s stimulus moves.

Hang Seng Index Forecast: Will the Index Break 24,500 or Drop Toward 24,000?

The Hang Seng Index traded above the July congestion zone while avoiding the 50-day EMA.

Easing trade tensions may support labor market stability, improve consumer sentiment, and fuel domestic consumption. These factors could counter US tariffs, potentially sending the Hang Seng Index toward the July 15 high of 24,556.

Conversely, rising US-China trade tensions and a proxy trade war with China could pressure corporate profits and undermine Beijing’s attempts to steady the labor market. Intensifying domestic price wars and weaker private consumption may pull the Index toward 24,000, potentially exposing the 50-day EMA and 23,500.

What’s next for the Hang Seng Index? Stay informed with real-time updates as geopolitical risks and US-China developments drive sentiment. Follow our live coverage and consult our economic calendar.