Dr. Arnout Ter Schure
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Almost a month ago, see here, I was looking for Bitcoin (BTC) to bottom around $26K before the next rally would start. On June 22, BTC bottomed at $29247 and is now essentially stuck between $30830-34450. In sideways markets, the Elliott Waves (EWP) has some difficulties in determining the next most likely move as there are many possible options under such circumstances. In Figure 1 below, I am showing the Bullish option. My premium crypto trading members also have access to the possible Bearish path.

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Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

If last Saturday’s low holds, BTC has a Bullish setup.

Bitcoin fell a bit short of the ideal wave-v target zone of $24077-26750, as shown in my June 8 update, but did make a lower low below the May 19 $29563 (red) intermediate wave-iii low, which therefore technically suffices for a 5th wave. Yes, financial markets and crypto included do not always have to follow the ideal textbook patterns, far from it.

Thus, if BTC can hold last Saturday’s low and rally back above this week’s high from around current levels, then there is an excellent potential Bullish path in front of us. We then know the course is Bullish, but we do not know if BTC will take short-cuts, the scenic route, or follow the GPS instructions, so to say. Here I’ve outlined the ideal path, i.e., GPS instructions, as that is all I can go by for now.

Please note BTC is below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 200d SMA, which are Bearishly stacked (price<50<200). Thus, technically BTC is in a Bear market setup, and the odds of good things happening, i.e., higher prices, are lower than when BTC is above both SMA (price>50>200). See for example, the left side of the chart. Besides, BTC is also below its Ichimoku Cloud, adding weight to the Bearish evidence.

Bottom line: the daily chart of BTC is still bearish as its price is below critically important SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud, diminishing the odds of higher prices. But, it has a potentially bullish setup in place if it can hold last Saturday’s low and rallies back above this week’s high. If that can happen, then BTC should be on its way to the low- to mid-$50Ks (major wave-1) before a more meaningful pullback starts (major wave-3), from where it can then stage its next significant rally to the $90Ks.

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