Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – November 10, 2015 – Forecast – Copper & Palladium

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper gave back early morning gains after the European session started to trad3e at 2.244 up by 2 points on the hopes of stimulus from China. Palladium tumbled $15.47 to 597.48 searching for a new bottom as traders looked at lackluster auto sales. Copper lost ground below the $5,000 mark on Monday and was sliding towards six-year lows after China trade data underlined struggling growth in the world’s top metals user.

China’s trade figures disappointed analysts’ expectations by a wide margin in October, reinforcing views that the world’s second-largest economy will have to do more to stimulate domestic demand given softness in overseas markets. UBS sees copper prices at 2.50 a pound average next year.

Copper futures fell a fourth day after Chinese trade slumped more than analysts anticipated, stoking bets that regulators there will have to expand economic stimulus. While Australian stocks opened lower and futures signaled losses from Hong Kong to Seoul, Japanese contracts climbed with the yen at an 11-week low.

China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell 7.1 percent month-on-month to 420,000 tonnes in October.

“Although copper imports for example dropped by nearly 8 percent month-on-month … this was because of the festival week in China at the beginning of October and the high level of imports in the previous month. What is more, copper imports exceeded last October’s level,” Commerzbank said.

Dollar strength has weighed heavily, as the currency jumped to a seven month high on Friday when US non-farm payroll data beat expectations and increased the likelihood of interest rates being raised by the end of the year. It was last at 1.0771 against the euro.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November10, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction