Intel’s 109% Rally Faces Q3 Test as Nasdaq, S&P Traders Eye Fundamentals vs. Hype

Intel’s Q3 Earnings in Focus After 109% Rally Fueled by External Capital

Intel (INTC) heads into its Q3 earnings release today facing elevated expectations following a dramatic 109% rally since August. The stock has surged from $18.97 to a high of $39.65 over the past two months, driven not by operational strength but by a wave of politically backed investments and strategic partnerships. Traders are watching closely to see if earnings will support the rally—or confirm it was sentiment-led.

U.S. Government Stake Shifts the Narrative

The turning point came on August 22 when the U.S. government took an unprecedented step, converting $8.9 billion in CHIPS Act and Secure Enclave funds into a 9.9% equity stake in Intel at $20.47 per share. The move, positioned as a national security measure by the Trump administration, reframed Intel as essential infrastructure rather than a struggling chipmaker. The stake signaled to markets that Intel was now too critical to fail—sparking broad-based buying.

SoftBank and Nvidia Amplify Investor Optimism

Investor confidence was further boosted by two major strategic partnerships. On August 18, SoftBank acquired a 2% stake for $2 billion at $23 per share, lending credibility via its ties to Arm Holdings. Then on September 18, Nvidia made headlines with a $5 billion investment at $23.28 per share for a 4% stake. This agreement included joint development of data center and PC products, and propelled Intel’s stock up 22.8% in a single session—the largest daily gain since 1987.

Earnings Still Reflect a Business Under Pressure

Despite these high-profile backers, Intel’s fundamentals remain weak. Q2 revenue was nearly flat year-over-year at $12.86 billion, and the company posted a $2.92 billion net loss. Foundry services remain a drag, posting $13 billion in losses last year. Citi downgraded Intel to “Sell” on September 19, citing continued underperformance in key segments and a manufacturing roadmap that trails TSMC by several years.

Apple Rumors Added Fuel — but No Deal Materialized

Further upside came in late September on reports that Intel had approached Apple about a possible investment or strategic partnership. While no agreement was reached, shares jumped 6.4% on September 26 on speculation alone. The market interpreted the outreach as a sign Intel was aggressively seeking validation from top-tier tech players, reinforcing sentiment that the company was regaining relevance across the sector.

High Expectations and Low Margin for Error

Consensus for Q3 is revenue of $13.1 billion and EPS of $0.01—technically a return to profitability but still well below historical standards. Traders will focus on three areas: gross margin improvement, Q4 guidance, and traction for Intel’s 18A process. While capital infusions have bought Intel time, they have yet to deliver tangible business momentum.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

Unless Intel delivers above-consensus earnings with strong forward guidance or announces major new foundry customers, the stock faces downside risk. The rally appears to have been driven more by political and strategic signaling than financial turnaround. With fundamentals lagging and sentiment stretched, traders should prepare for potential retracement if today’s results fall short.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.