Is Bitcoin Still on Track for $28000?

Bitcoin Reached $24K as Anticipated

A little over two weeks, see here, we found using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), “Shorter-term, orange W-4 of grey W-iii should have bottomed, right in its ideal orange target zone, and orange W-5 to ideally $22750-24000 is underway before grey W-iv, etc., take hold..” See figure 1 below. We have upgraded the wave count since and labeled the orange W-4 as a two-degree lower light-blue W-4, but we kept all the target zones on the chart.

Regardless, BTC reached $24229 on February 2^nd for the grey W-iii and should now be -or may already have completed- grey W-iv. Thus, BTC has been moving along as anticipated, and my premium subscribers have benefited tremendously. Or as we say, “if a 50% rally is a Bull trap, please trap me again, and again, and again.”

Impulse Higher Is Still on Track, but BTC Needs to Hold Critical Levels

With BTC having reached and slightly exceeded the ideal grey W-iii target zone of $22,750-24,000, it did so on increasing negative divergences. What is that? Those are the red arrows on the technical indicators (TIs), i.e., price moves higher, but strength (RSI5), Momentum (MACD), and Money Flow (MFI14) decrease, typical for the EWP count we are tracking as these TIs are at their highest readings during the heart of a 3^rd wave. BTC has now declined for almost four days, which is the longest stretch of downside since December last year, supporting the preferred EWP count as shown.

BTC may already have bottomed for grey W-iv but can quickly drop to the grey target zone at $21,225-22,385. The crypto will have to drop below $20,412 to start to suggest something more Bearish is afoot. Thus, the current rally’s ultimate and ideal upside target of $27-28,000 remains on track.

And as said last, “then BTC can decide if that was all for an irregular expanded flat (black) wave-4, which would explain the three-wave decline from the August high into the November low. Or if it is only wave-1/a. The former means the $10K level will get visited for all of W-5, whereas the latter suggests BTC will pull back to $20-18.5K before moving higher again for W-3/c.” As long as $20412 holds, with a first warning for the Bulls below $21,225, we should allow for higher prices.