Miners Support ASX 200 Index as Trade Deficit and Renko Pullback Pressure Bulls

Miners Lead as Light & Wonder Slumps

Miners are carrying the ASX 200 Index again. BHP, Rio, Forstescue and Newmont are all green, but the bigger threshold moves are Evolution mining (+6.33%) and Orica (+7.55%), while Light & Wonder (-8.34%) is a big red flag. EVN looks more like a commodity and gold sector momentum move, with market coverage pointing to gold producers rallying alongside stronger commodity prices.

Orica’s jump can be attributed to a record 1st half earnings and a higher dividend. LNW is a different story. Its revenue grew, but investors focused on weaker net income, legal reserves and margin pressure. The ASX 200 was up for the day by about 1%.

ASX 200 Heat Map Shows Strong Gains in Non-Energy Miners

ASX 200 Heat Map

Source: TradingView

Australia Trade Deficit Shakes ASX 200 Already Weakened Confidence

There was a flip in Australia’s trade balance to a A$1.84B deficit in May, way below the A$4.25B surplus forecast and quite a break from the surplus trend that was seen since late 2025. This is mildly bearish for the ASX 200. This reading raises questions around export momentum, commodity demand, and the earnings backdrop for miners.

Australia’s Trade Balance Unexpectedly Swung to a A$1.84B Deficit

Bar Chart Showing Australia’s Balance of Trade

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Renko Pullback Tests Bullish Momentum

ASX 200 Index is back above trend but is currently pulling back a little. The Supertrend flipped negative after a series of red bricks. Both the RSI and Z-Score SMA are trending lower so expectations are for this pullback to continue in the short case. Expectations would be for a re-test of the long-term 500 SMA. Hopefully support at that level holds and the ASX 200 returns on its upward movements with higher highs and higher lows.

15-Brick ASX 200 Renko Shows Price Cooling After Sharp Rally

ASX200 15-Brick Renko

Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 8,910, 9,230

Medium Term Path: The rally off the 500-SMA is losing some momentum and that trade deficit data release isn’t helping the situation. Worst case the ASX retests the 500-SMA. Hopefully it holds there for another move higher. We need a change in trend in the Z-Score SMA to help determine the end of this short-term pullback. In the meantime patience is required. Go sit on your hands until the new uptrend is established.