For now, most traders are still distracted by Copper’s meteoric rise. But the smartest money is moving quietly, methodically, into silver – before the breakout becomes consensus.
Silver is breaking out – not just technically, but structurally. Here’s why this could be the most explosive Commodity trade of 2025.
There’s no denying it – Copper has dominated the third quarter of 2025. With a record-breaking 42% year-to-date gain, it’s cemented its position as the year’s top-performing asset class. From infrastructure bets to AI-driven demand, the red metal has been on an unstoppable tear.
But while Copper basks in the spotlight, analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence are urging traders to shift their focus – because another metal is quietly positioning itself for what could be an even more explosive breakout.
And that metal is Silver.
Up 36% so far this year, Silver is already outperforming Gold’s 29% YTD gain. Yet, unlike Copper, it’s not just riding the wave of macro momentum – it’s being pulled by a powerful undertow of structural market forces that are going largely unnoticed. Behind the scenes, the setup is becoming too compelling to ignore. Silver isn’t merely rallying. It’s being squeezed – slowly, but with growing pressure.
September Comex contracts are now commanding lease rates north of 5%, reflecting extreme tightness in physical supply. Over 400 million ounces are net short, held by just 24 traders – a dangerously concentrated position that reeks of vulnerability.
Meanwhile, warehouse stocks, equivalent to around 60% of global mined supply, are not being delivered or distributed. They’re being held back, hoarded by those who see what’s coming. This is not speculative froth. This is strategic accumulation by sophisticated traders who understand the game is changing.
At the same time, open interest in Silver futures is declining – a development that typically signals waning momentum. Yet prices continue to climb. That contradiction is telling. It suggests that what’s happening beneath the surface is not a typical rally, but the early phases of a systemic fracture in the paper market. Swap dealers are now exposed to roughly $634 million in short exposure per trader, and with liquidity thinning, their options are narrowing fast.
What makes Silver even more compelling is its unique dual nature: a monetary metal with industrial demand. The supply side is being squeezed by a long-term deficit – few new discoveries, long mine development timelines and growing end-user demand from Solar, Electric Vehicles, AI Hardware and Defence Applications. This isn’t a narrative. It’s a data-backed reality – and it’s accelerating.
Add to that a wave of macro catalysts and the case for Silver becomes urgent. Donald Trump has threatened blanket tariffs on imports from Mexico, the world’s largest Silver producer – a geopolitical wildcard that could tighten supply overnight.
Inflationary pressures are mounting again, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is boxed in. With foreign demand for Treasuries weakening and refunding needs surging, any dovish pivot risks destabilizing the bond market. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, though temporarily stabilized, is showing technical signs of weakness – and any flare-up in the Powell vs Trump feud could send it lower still.
This is how secular bull markets begin. Not with hype, but with tension. Not with headlines, but with pressure points slowly building until something snaps. Silver doesn’t erupt like Copper. It coils. It compresses. And then, when the paper market breaks and physical demand takes control, it doesn’t just rally – it explodes.
For now, most traders are still distracted by Copper’s meteoric rise. But the smartest money is moving quietly, methodically, into silver – before the breakout becomes consensus. Because once that moment comes, positioning will be crowded, premiums will spike, and the asymmetry will vanish. If you missed Copper’s move, Silver might be your second chance – and this time, the upside could be even greater.
Phil Carr is co-founder and the Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading, Research and Data-Intelligence firm.