Monero’s XMR Technical Analysis – Going Bearish – 04/05/18

Key Highlights

• Monero slipped 1.49% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 4.48% gain, to end the day at $246.21.
• A morning fall to an intraday low $242 held above the day’s first major support level of $240.7, while Monero’s XMR continued to sit below the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $266.5.
• An afternoon intraday high $258.5 saw Monero test the day’s first major resistance level of $256.6 before a reversal led to a slide back to end the day at $246.21.

How to Buy Monero: The Complete Guide

Monero’s XMR Price Support

Monero slipped 1.49% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 4.48% gain to end the day at $246.21, bucking the trend across the broader market that saw most of the crypto majors close out the day with solid gains.

An afternoon rally through to an intraday high $258.5, testing the day’s first major resistance level of $256.6, quickly reversed to see Monero slide back to an afternoon low $242.37 before recovering to $246 levels by the day’s end.

While the broader market has been enjoying a move back towards late April’s swing hi levels, Monero is seeing its bullish trend, formed back at 6^th April’s swing lo $161.1, being tested, with a near term bearish trend beginning to form.

The shift in sentiment comes following news hitting the wires that Japan’s FSA will look to force crypto exchanges to delist crypto coins that support criminal activity through anonymity or enhanced privacy. Monero is not the only coin, but amongst a number of coins listed that sit in the top 20 by market cap.

For now, the good news is that the lion’s share of trading volumes are outside of Japan, with HitBTC, Bitfinex and Upbit accounting for over 99% of Monero’s XMR trading volumes across XMR/USD, XMR/BTC and XMR/KRW pairings. The bad news is that efforts to create a global set of regs could see other regulators look to introduce similar rules to the FSA, which would certainly have a more devastating impact Monero’s XMR.

Monero’s failure to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $266.5 may well see investors move elsewhere, the news of cryptos being removed from exchanges as influential as news of inclusion, though no news has hit the wires of exchanges having already complied with the FSA’s request.

At the time of writing, Monero was down a further 1.74% to $242.01, a morning low $240.07 seeing Monero’s XMR pullback through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $246.3, the only good news through the early part of the day being a hold above the day’s first major support level of $239.3.

For the day ahead, failing to move back through to $250 levels and have look at breaking out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $266.5 will likely see more declines on the cards by the day’s end, sub-$240 support levels certainly in play today.

Broader market sentiment may not be enough for Monero today, which suggests that a reversal of the bullish trend formed on 6^th April is underway, which could see Monero face selling pressure at $245 levels should Monero find some support through the morning.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $239.3

Major Resistance Level: $255.8

Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $266.5

Fib 38% Retracement Level: $246.3

Fib 62% Retracement Level: $213.8