Morning Market News – AUD/USD

The AUD/USD‘s rally is still in progress and the pair edges higher to the 0.7833 level. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. A break of 0.7785 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rebound from the 0.7736 level bottom. In such case, AUD/USD would target projection of 0.7833 next. On the downside, below 0.7766 a minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. The pair’s near-term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.7766 the support holds.

In the bigger picture, the current development suggests that a rebound from the 0.7736 level is developing into a medium-term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. We will continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, a further rise is expected even further to the 0.7845 level. The break of 0.7785 resistance level is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

The recent run low on the Aussie has been stopped and showed some consolidation. A huge accelerating bull run has seen the market burst through the key high of 0.7785 to now see what looks to be a huge breakout above the high of the 0.7785 level. The market has been limited by the resistance band at 0.7785 on numerous occasions in the past few candles but the weakness of the dollar has driven a breakout. The oscillator at 67 is higher than it has been in the recent times. The pair staying with the bull-run may be profitable in the very near term, however, if profit is taking hits, it could be a sharp reversal. Watch for the exhaustion signals. On the pivot bands, it is also notable that the entire current session took place. The bulls were looking tired before the sharp gains of today, but again the move looks stretched and a close back inside the resistance would now be a corrective signal. Also, the oscillator was close to crossing back above 70 before today’s gains. A move back below 70 on the daily would now be a corrective signal that a closing level back inside the band would now be a profit taking signal. The four hourly chart supports around the breakout at the 0.7785 level.

The AUD/USD pair opens today trading with a clear positivity to move away from the bullish trend line that appears on four hour chart, as the EMA50 shall be the first key level for support to protect the price from suffering more losses, while stochastic begins to provide positive overlapping signals on the four hours’ time frame.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, which its main targets begin at 0.7845 and extend to reach the 0.7863 level, taking into consideration that breaking 0.7785 will begin the expected rise and push the price to start bullish correction on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between the 0.7766 support and the 0.7845 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish
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