Nasdaq and S&P500: Tesla Rally and Trade Talks Boost US Indices Today

Stocks Gain as Tesla Surges and Trade Talk Optimism Lifts Sentiment

Stocks moved higher Monday, supported by upbeat signals from U.S.-China trade discussions and a sharp rally in Tesla. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 98.75 points (+0.22%), the S&P 500 gained 28.76 points (+0.44%), and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 139.29 points (+0.63%), with tech leading the early advance.

Are U.S.-China Trade Talks Cooling Tensions—or Masking New Risks?

Top officials met for a second straight day to address tariffs and TikTok’s divestiture deadline. Former President Donald Trump called the talks “positive,” hinting at a deal involving a company “young people … very much wanted to save”—likely referring to TikTok. But tensions linger: the U.S. is prepared to ban TikTok if China won’t ease tech and tariff demands, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, China’s antitrust probe into Nvidia intensified. Regulators said the chipmaker violated competition laws and that the investigation would continue. Nvidia fell 1.8%, and the move pressured semis more broadly.

Is Tesla’s $1 Billion Insider Buy a Turning Point?

Tesla shares jumped 5.85% after CEO Elon Musk disclosed a $1 billion open-market stock purchase, his largest ever. Traders viewed the move as a bullish internal signal, especially as Tesla pivots toward robotics amid intensifying EV competition. Tesla was one of the top S&P gainers, second only to Seagate Technologies, which surged 7.32%.

Which Stocks Are Reacting Most to Regulatory and Market Shifts?

Semiconductor names underperformed as China launched an anti-dumping probe targeting U.S. analog chipmakers. Texas Instruments dropped 2.97%, On Semiconductor lost 2%, and Analog Devices fell 3% (not shown but implied from earlier reporting).

Corteva slid 4.58% on reports it’s considering splitting its seed and pesticide operations. CVS, Centene, and Best Buy were also among the day’s laggards. Meanwhile, Union Pacific gained after a Citigroup upgrade citing operational strength and clarity around its merger with Norfolk Southern.

How Is the Fed Outlook Driving Positioning?

Fed rate cut expectations remain elevated following soft labor and inflation data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with only 3.6% odds of a larger move. Investors are also watching whether Stephen Miran is confirmed in time to vote at this week’s FOMC meeting.

Market Forecast

With Tesla’s surge bolstering risk appetite and Fed policy looking supportive, short-term sentiment favors continued strength in growth and AI-linked names. However, China’s regulatory actions—particularly against U.S. chipmakers—pose sector-specific downside. Traders should watch closely for any language shifts from the Fed on forward guidance and remain alert for updates in U.S.-China trade and tech negotiations.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.