Nasdaq Index and S&P 500: Tech Stocks Drift as US Stock Market Awaits PCE Data

Wall Street Treads Water Ahead of Fed Decision

U.S. stocks are going nowhere Thursday — drifting between fractional gains and losses as traders parse mixed labor data and wait for next week’s Fed decision.

Jobless claims hit a three-year low, which sounds good until you remember that good news isn’t necessarily helpful right now. Stronger data doesn’t give the Fed more reason to cut — it gives them less. And with rate cut odds sitting near 90%, the market’s already priced in the move. The question isn’t if they cut, but what they say about what comes next.

Jobs Data Offers No Clear Signal

The labor picture is messy. Weekly claims dropped sharply, but a Chicago Fed estimate put unemployment near 4.4% in November. That’s not alarming, but it’s not screaming strength either. Without the official payrolls report — which won’t land until after the December meeting — traders are stuck piecing together a read from secondary indicators that don’t all point the same way.

Friday’s PCE Print in Focus

Traders are also holding back ahead of Friday’s PCE report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This one matters more than usual. The recent government shutdown left a data gap, so this is the first clean look at inflation trends in weeks. If it runs hot, December’s cut stays intact but January gets cloudier. If it cools, the Fed’s got more room to ease.

Sector Action Stays Selective

Industrials are leading, up 0.7%, while consumer staples and consumer discretionary are lagging — down over 1% and 0.9%.

Meta’s up nearly 4% after reports it’s slashing its Metaverse budget. Snowflake’s down 11% on weak guidance. Dollar General’s popping 7% after raising its profit forecast.

What to Watch Into the Close

The Dow’s holding near breakeven, the S&P is fractionally lower, and the Nasdaq’s down about 0.1%. Volume’s been muted all session — classic pre-event positioning. Don’t expect much conviction before the bell.

Into the close, watch whether dip buyers show up if the major indexes test session lows, or if profit takers press if tech tries to reclaim positive territory. The path of least resistance right now is sideways — nobody wants to make a big bet with the PCE landing Friday morning and the Fed decision looming next week.

Friday’s PCE will set the tone. If inflation stays under control, the path to a December cut stays clear. If it heats up, traders will start gaming out whether the Fed pauses in January or signals fewer cuts than the market wants to hear.

For now, buyers aren’t chasing and they’re not selling either. They’re waiting for the data to give them a reason to move.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.