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NASDAQ Index, SP500, Dow Jones Forecasts: Markets Eye Payrolls, Rate Hike Pause

By:
Arslan Ali

S&P 500 Index, facing immediate resistance at $4,610, balances bullish and bearish signals, with a cautious trend above pivot point at $4,530.

Indices Recap

In this article:

Key Insights

  • Mixed U.S. stock futures ahead of payrolls report; Nasdaq lifted by Google.
  • Easing inflation impacts market sentiment, focusing on Fed’s rate decisions.
  • S&P 500’s slight contraction, with potential resistance and support levels identified.
  • Dow Jones shows minor decline, hints at a cautious market outlook.
  • NASDAQ’s subtle fall reflects tech sector’s influence on market dynamics.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

U.S. stock futures indicated a mixed outlook as investors await the crucial monthly payrolls report, with Dow and S&P 500 futures relatively flat, and Nasdaq futures slightly uplifted by Google’s rise.

Market sentiment, influenced by easing inflation, anticipates the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes. The upcoming payrolls data will be key in determining the Fed’s rate direction and the potential for a smooth economic transition.

Early trading saw Dow e-minis slightly down, S&P 500 e-minis steady, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis moderately up, reflecting varied responses across sectors. This data will significantly impact the direction of NASDAQ, SPX, and DJIA in the short term.

SPX SP500 Prices Forecast

SPX SP500 - Chart
SPX SP500 – Chart

The S&P 500 Index witnessed a modest contraction, declining by 0.39% to settle at 4549.35. This subtle movement reflects the market’s ongoing balancing act amid fluctuating economic and geopolitical cues.

The index is currently facing immediate resistance at $4,610, with subsequent hurdles at $4,693 and $4,764. On the flip side, support levels are established at $4,461, followed by stronger support at $4,384 and $4,313.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, indicating a slightly bullish momentum but not yet in the overbought zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a reading of -8 against a signal line of 25.14, suggesting a bearish undertone. However, the index maintains a position above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $4,435, typically a bullish signal.

A key observation is the double-top pattern breakout, now serving as a support level around $4,530. This pattern suggests that the index might have found a reliable floor, potentially paving the way for an upward trajectory.

The overall trend for the S&P 500 appears bullish above the pivot point of $4,530, and in the short term, the market is poised to test the next set of resistance levels, provided the current support holds firm.

Dow Prices Forecast

NASDAQ Prices Forecast

NASDAQ - Chart
NASDAQ – Chart

The NASDAQ, reflecting the ebb and flow of tech and growth stocks, saw a modest retreat, with the index slipping by 0.56% to close at 14,146.71. As investors recalibrate their positions amidst a landscape of economic uncertainty and shifting monetary policy expectations, the index finds itself grappling with key resistance levels.

The immediate ceiling is set at $14,648, with further resistance at $14,806 and $15,014. Support levels firm up at $14,051, stretching to $13,802, with a significant floor at $13,505. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 58, suggesting a cautious optimism among market participants.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offers a mixed signal, resting at -46 against a signal line of 48.4, implying that while bearish momentum is present, the possibility of an upturn remains. Currently, the index stands above the 50-day EMA of $13,780, which typically suggests bullish undercurrents.

However, the NASDAQ is contained within a lateral channel, bounded by $14,350 and $14,000.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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