Nasdaq Composite and S&P500: Jobs Data Drives Weekly Rally to New Peaks

Markets Hit Fresh Highs Amid Strong Jobs Data

U.S. equities extended their rally to new all-time highs during the holiday-shortened week ending July 4, driven by stronger-than-expected employment data that bolstered economic confidence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite tacked on 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively. It was the third straight week of gains for the Dow and the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 posted gains for the second consecutive week.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have closed at record highs on four of the past five days, while the Dow is just 0.4% away from setting its first all-time high since December 4.

Economic Data Delivers June Jobs Beat

Thursday, July 3 – Employment Situation (released early due to holiday)

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February and against a forecast for a slight increase to 4.3%.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, indicating little upward pressure on wage-related inflation. The solid employment data reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts.

Tuesday, July 2 – ADP Employment

This week, the government’s nonfarm payrolls report will be out on Thursday with economists expecting a healthy 110,000 increase for June, per Dow Jones estimates. The ADP report showed private sector job losses of 33,000, creating negative sentiment before the official jobs data.

Monday, July 1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI

The manufacturing index remained in contraction territory but showed improvement over the prior month.

Notable Earnings Deliver Mixed Results

Tesla (TSLA) – Wednesday, July 2: Tesla delivered 384,122 electric vehicles during Q2 2025, which was right on Wall Street consensus estimates of around 385,000.

Tesla also confirmed having deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage products – down from 10.4 GWh last quarter. The delivery numbers came in at the high end of lowered expectations, helping shares rally.

Constellation Brands (STZ) – After Close Tuesday, July 1: Constellation Brands, the maker of Modelo and Corona beers, is scheduled to report earnings Tuesday, a report due after it trimmed its outlook in the previous quarter.

The company faced headwinds from tariff impacts on its Mexican beer operations.

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) – Before Open Monday, June 30: MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) reported earnings, with the industrial supply company posting results that helped drive its stock higher.

Powell Emphasizes Data-Dependent Approach

Tuesday, July 1 – ECB Forum, Sintra (2:30 PM GMT)

Federal Reserve would have cut interest rates by now if President Donald Trump’s tariffs weren’t so substantial, central bank chief Jerome Powell said Tuesday.

When asked on Tuesday about a possible interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting this month, Powell said, “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put any on the table. It depends on how the data evolve”.

Financial market bets rose that the Federal Reserve could start interest-rate cuts as soon as this month after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, asked if July was too soon to consider rate cuts, said he “can’t say” but that the decision would depend on the economic data.

Powell’s comments about tariffs constraining monetary policy and his data-dependent stance on rate cuts kept July rate cut prospects alive but provided no clear endorsement.

Bonds Reflect Policy Shifts

Labor market data released this morning reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. economy, but dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will be in a position to cut interest rates anytime soon. U.S. Treasury yields rose following the strong jobs report as bond markets reduced bets on near-term Fed easing. Treasury yields moved up this week, mostly on the short end of the curve due to declining rate cut expectations, resulting in some flattening of the yield curve.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Index closed at 6,279.36, making new all-time highs above the 50-day MA at 5,887.6 and 200-day MA at 5,842.77.

The nearest swing bottoms are at 5943.23 and 5767.41. The index is trading well above both moving averages.

Nasdaq Composite closed at 20,601.10, hitting fresh record highs above the 50-day MA at 18,993.7 and 200-day MA at 18,728.98.

The nearest swing bottom is 20105.42. This is followed by the intermediate swing bottom at 19334.98 and the long-term swing bottom at 18599.69. The index is trading strongly above both moving averages.

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,073.63, near all-time highs and above the 50-day MA at 42,185.1 and 200-day MA at 42,650.88.

The nearest swing bottom is 41981.14. The index is trading above both moving averages.

Summary

The week’s robust employment data confirmed economic resilience while effectively reducing expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts.

So far in 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen nearly 7%, while the Dow is up 5.4%.

Strong job creation, combined with Powell’s data-dependent messaging on monetary policy, supported the continuation of the equity rally across all major indices.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.