Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — But WTI Crashes Below $96, Next Stop $91?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Take a Steady Pace as Ceasefire Holds

Crude oil prices barely budge on May 7, 2026 – much to the relief of traders – as the conditional US-Iran ceasefire is now a month old and looking more stable by the day. This has done the trick in calming down the geopolitical risk premium which sent prices on a wild ride in March and April. As a result, the focus is finally shifting back to the fundamentals – the real-day-to-day business of supply and demand.

As analysts look at the numbers, they’re pointing out that while US-Iran tanker traffic is slowly getting back to normal, we’re still waiting for full flow to be restored – which wont happen overnight, given the state of the infrastructure and all the verification processes that need to be done. But the fact that US production has been up and OPEC+ has been tweaking their output has at least stabilised things a bit. And now, everyone’s watching the US inventory reports and the next set of OPEC+ policy signals to get a read on what’s going on with supply.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices were pretty quiet, helped by a healthy build up in US and European storage as spring has turned out milder than expected. And it turns out the ceasefire has also had a knock-on effect elsewhere – easing up the pressure on LNG shipping routes out of the Middle East, which has helped calm down international spot markets. But, of course, there are still some long-term trends in play – like the fact that Asia and Europe are still looking to import more LNG.

One thing the market is reminding everyone is that this ceasefire is still a pretty fragile thing. And if things start to go wrong on the diplomatic front, all this stability could turn on a dime. For now, though, the energy complex is finally transitioning from being driven by headlines to being influenced by the usual suspects – seasonal stuff and good old fashioned economics.

Natural Gas Futures Still Struggling at $2.72 – Descending Channel Pressure Continues

Natural Gas futures is currently at $2.719 on the 4h NYMEX chart and is grinding lower inside the white descending channel from April highs. Recent red candles rejected the red MA near $2.75 and lower highs have been preserved. The blue trendline is offering some minor support around $2.70 and fib extensions are pointing to the $2.662-$2.589 downside targets.

RSI stays below 45 confirming a bearish bias. Price action shows failed rallies at the $2.736 resistance. The overall structure remains negative below $2.75 while the volume profile highlights $2.72 as a heavy supply zone.

Trade Idea: Sell at $2.719, target $2.66 and stop at $2.75.

WTI Crude Oil Tumbles Below $96 – Blue Channel Breakdown Finally Confirmed

WTI crude is now trading at $92.98 on the 4h chart after a sharp red candle breakdown below the blue ascending channel floor and the red 50-period moving average hovering around $96. The price made a new low while printing lower lows in a strong bearish engulfing from the $95.67 high, which has also violated the higher low structure. We can see that the fib retracement from the May swing low has got the price bouncing off the $91.92 immediate 61.8% support level which was just tested.

RSI has dropped below 40 telling us that momentum is no longer there. And to make matters worse, the overhead resistance has flipped to the $96.00-$97.28 zone, and the volume profile shows that $95 is where the sellers initially took control. The overall structure has completed a decisive turn to the bearish side as soon as it broke below $96 while the channel ceiling is capping any recovery.

Trade Idea: Sell at $92.95, with a target of $91.50 and a stop at $94.20.

Brent Crude Oil Has A Pull Back to $99 – Channel Support Gets Tested Again

Brent is currently trading at $99.14 on the 4h chart, retesting the lower blue ascending channel line after being rejected at $100.86. Red candles are dominating with lower highs intact while the red MA acts as dynamic resistance near $101. The price still holds above the $97.61 Fib confluence, but those green rejection wicks are visible.

RSI is hovering just shy of 45 showing that momentum is pretty neutral. Next support cluster would be at $97.61-$96.00. Up-channel from April is still in play but the breach below $98.94 would really start to accelerate the downside. Volume profile is marking $100 as a key resistance pivot.

Trade Idea: Sell at $99.10, target $97.60 and stop at $100.00.