Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Debt Concerns and Tariff Tensions Weigh on Energy

Market Overview

Crude oil and natural gas markets are showing a cautious recovery as traders weigh the impact of persistent geopolitical tensions against growing oversupply risks. The recent decline was fueled by an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories and the International Energy Agency’s warning of a larger surplus ahead.

Geopolitical uncertainty is lending underlying support by raising concerns over potential disruptions to supply chains and trade flows. However, these gains are capped by swelling stockpiles and signs of slowing demand growth in key consuming regions.

Any breakthrough in diplomatic discussions could reduce sanctions risks and stabilize market flows, while setbacks or tighter restrictions on major importers could lead to abrupt supply constraints.

Natural gas fundamentals remain similarly balanced. While seasonal demand is easing, supply-side vulnerabilities tied to LNG transport routes could trigger sudden price swings.

Overall, both energy markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, inventory data, and OPEC+ production strategies, leaving near-term direction dependent on the interplay between supply risks and demand trends.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Futures are consolidating near $2.81 after facing repeated rejection at the $2.826 Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. The 50-EMA at $2.888 and the 100-EMA at $2.955 remain key dynamic resistances, with further hurdles at the $2.90 (Fib 61.8%) and $2.942 (Fib 78.6%) levels.

RSI is hovering around 38, signaling lingering bearish momentum, while price action remains below a descending trendline. A rejection from the $2.856–$2.88 zone could trigger a move toward $2.776, with deeper declines exposing $2.725 and $2.690.

Bulls would need a sustained break above $2.90 to shift sentiment toward $2.986. Overall, the technical bias remains bearish unless price breaks and holds above key EMAs with volume confirmation.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $63.03, struggling to recover after a sharp decline from early August highs. The price is testing resistance at $63.37, aligned with the 50 EMA on the 2-hour chart. A break above this zone could open the way toward $65.08, but momentum remains limited, with the 100 EMA still trending lower at $64.37.

On the downside, $61.97 is the nearest support, followed by $61.08 and $60.26. RSI has rebounded from oversold territory to 48.37, suggesting short-term relief, but without strong volume, gains may stall.

Overall, bulls need a decisive close above $63.37 to shift sentiment toward recovery, while a rejection could see renewed pressure toward the $61.00 area.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading at $66.02, showing a modest recovery within a clear descending channel on the 2-hour chart. Price remains capped by the 50 EMA at $66.43 and the 100 EMA at $67.20, both acting as strong resistance levels.

The recent bounce from $64.99 highlights buyer interest, but the broader trend still favors sellers as long as the price stays below the channel’s upper boundary.
The RSI, now at 48.93, has rebounded from oversold territory, signaling a potential shift in momentum, but confirmation above 50 is needed.

A breakout above $66.43 could open the path toward $67.20 and $68.59, while a breakdown below $64.99 risks deeper declines to $64.11 and $63.41.