Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Inventory Data Looms—Will Brent Extend Toward $98?

Oil Market Overview: Supply Concerns Loom Before Inventory Release

As traders await a new U.S. inventory snapshot to discern if supply and demand are finally coming back into balance, the fundamental picture in oil markets remains centered on geopolitical risk. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast a 500K barrel draw in U.S. commercial crude supplies for the week ended July 17, which would be a second-straight decline, so attention will be on Wednesday’s report.

Risks to supply remain elevated following military strikes in the Middle East and North Africa by the U.S. against Iran and Yemen’s Houthis. The war continues to hamper navigation through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted receiving crude from Kazakhstan following a missile strike near its terminal on the Black Sea. Saudi crude exports were down for a third straight month in May.

Natural gas fundamentals remain positive. The EIA anticipates U.S. LNG exports will average 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026, from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025, as more export capacity becomes available and global gas demand remains resilient. It also expects U.S. crude production will average 13.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, then hit 14.0 million bpd in 2027.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: NG Remains Range-Bound Below Key Moving Averages

Natural gas continues to move sideways as prices trade around $2.88 per the 4-hour chart, even if there have been a number of rallies. The contract remains lower than the 50-EMA at $2.93 and 100-EMA at $3.00. That is a sign that sellers are still in control of the short-term trend overall.

$2.90 is immediate resistance, then $2.95, then $3.02, $3.09. Short-term support would be at $2.82, then at $2.78, $2.73, $2.66. The RSI is about 48 which is neutral and indicative of a directionless trend.

To my technical analysis, natural gas still needs to consolidate. Should prices move persistently higher to trade $2.90 to $2.95, that would improve short-term momentum toward $3.02, however, if the market falls back below $2.82 that would increase a move towards $2.78.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: USOIL Breaks Descending Trendline, Bulls Eye $88.66

The WTI crude price broke higher above its multi-week trend on the 4-hour chart, which is a positive sign for short-term sentiment. Prices sit at $85.25, above the 50-EMA at $79.78 and 100-EMA at $77.77. This is the case following its recent rally that started in early July lows. WTI crude is now also situated higher than the 61.8% level that retraced to a level of $83.48.

$88.66 is near term resistance, and that would be followed by $93.71, then the 100% projection at about $95.00. Short term support should be at $83.48, with further support at $80.34, $77.07. RSI is approximately 68, which is momentum strong, but near an overbought reading.

Based on my technical analysis, the rise above a trend resistance level is indicative of an on-going recovery. If the market remains higher than the $83.48 mark, focus can still remain on the $88.66 resistance region. However, a retreat lower, back below the previously broken-out trend resistance, could be a signal that the market will enter a period of consolidation until a new direction takes form.

Brent Oil Technical Analysis: UKOIL Extends Breakout Toward $98 Resistance

Brent Crude Oil is continuing to climb, higher above its long-term trend on the 4-hour chart. Prices trade at $92.13, higher than the 50-EMA at $85.55 and 100-EMA at $82.82. That is after its July rally that has improved medium term sentiment.

$98.03 is near term resistance, then $105.64. Short-term support sits at $91.82, then at $87.34, $84.12, and $80.83. The RSI is now at a level near 72, which is momentum strong, suggesting gains from here might not move as steeply as recent ones.

To my technical analysis, the trend rise suggests the on-going recovery has not yet failed as long as it stays above a trend resistance. A market remaining above $91.82 would be bullish. However, if a decline happens below that level, prices may look to fall towards $87.34, then the question of trend direction will need to be determined.