Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Oil Volatility Roars as Strait of Hormuz Risks Persist – Can Bulls Break the $105 Barrier?

Energy Markets Navigate Uncertain Supply Outlook Amid Fragile Truce

Oil and Natural Gas markets remain on a roller coaster ride as traders try to figure out just how solid this shaky truce is & what it’ll mean for the whole global supply chain. The price of WTI and Brent oil are still jumping all over the place after some wild swings, with gains/losses of 10-15% or more in the past few days – all because of traders’ growing concerns about how fast oil is going to keep flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that’s key to getting oil to market and accounts for nearly one fifth of the world’s total oil transit.

Even though things have seemingly calmed a bit, its still tough to see just how long the supply lines are going to be out of commission & whether there’ll be enough tankers moving in & out of that key waterway. That uncertainty is what keeps the price of oil a bit higher than it would otherwise be – a sort of insurance premium for the extra risk that all this is adding to the market.

Meanwhile, natural gas is getting slammed, with prices bouncing around near their lowest levels in weeks thanks in part to soft demand signals and ample supply stockpiles.

Natural Gas Breaks Downtrend Toward $2.65 as Bearish Momentum Extends

Natural Gas is currently trading at $2.67, having broken through that $2.77 support zone and basically started falling right on down to the ascending structure. Price is definitely respecting that descending trendline and the way it just keeps making lower highs really confirms the bearish trend. Those candlesticks are just a mess showing a whole lotta downside pressure with basically no recovery in sight.

The 50-SMA is also sitting under the 200-SMA which is another good sign that we are in a bear market. The RSI is kind of stuck at 35 which means that momentum is not exactly booming. We have immediate support down at $2.63 and $2.56 and then resistance starting to kick in at $2.77 and $2.87. If we do get a pullback I expect selling to start right back up.

Trade idea: Sell below $2.65, target $2.56, stop loss above $2.77.

WTI Crude Oil Rebounds from $91 Support, Eyes Recovery Structure

WTI has managed to bounce back up to $ 99.60 after making a sharp turn around the $111-$117 supply zone which had been putting on the squeeze , following that up with a pretty aggressive bearish engulfing candle. It’s rebounded from that $91 support line that also just happens to be aligned with the ascending trendline & the 200-SMA, all of which is pretty good news for the bulls as it looks like theyre defending their territory pretty well.

We see resistance coming in at $105.10 and $111.80 with those support levels holding strong at $96.00 and $91.00. A higher low happening could be a good sign that the trend is still intact in the bulls favor.

Trade idea: Buy in at $100, target $105, stop loss below $96.

Brent Crude Tests $99 Resistance as Trendline Pressure Builds

Brent is currently hovering around $97.60, just shy of that $99.30 resistance zone which is actually a big deal because it used to be a support line but got flipped on its head. Price is still firmly under that descending trendline from recent highs – that’s a pretty clear indication that the bears still have control.

We are seeing the 50-SMA acting as dynamic resistance while the 200-SMA down below is still providing structural support near $92.

The RSI is kind of stuck at 40 which just means that momentum is pretty weak. If brent does manage to break through $99.30 that could send it sprinting up towards $104.60, but if it fails then it might just drag price back down to $92.00.
Trade idea: Sell below $96 with a target of $92, stop loss above $100.