Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Eyes September Hike – Can WTI Reclaim $82.90?

Oil News: OPEC+ Eyes September Hike as LNG Risks Persist

Oil’s underlying fundamentals continue to revolve around the outlook for OPEC+ policy and geopolitical risks to supply, as investors look ahead to the producers’ meeting in early August. The group is expected to vote at its next meeting to raise production by an additional 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, finishing off the planned roll-out of the 1.65 million bpd of voluntary production cuts announced in 2023.

However, sources indicate the alliance is likely to pause additional output increases from October through December, leaving roughly 2 million bpd of broader production cuts in place while members negotiate new quotas for 2027. That could leave spare capacity lower than anticipated if OPEC+ countries don’t see their production quotas fully restored. Recent supply disruptions caused by Iran-related tensions in the Middle East may also reduce spare production capacity available to meet any potential shortfalls in the future.

On the demand side, commercial crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.0 million barrels during the week ended July 17, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, U.S. refinery utilization rates remained above 96%, supporting healthy fuel consumption during the summer driving season. The EIA estimates that global liquids production will remain at 101.9 million bpd in 2026 before rising again in 2027.

Meanwhile, the natural gas fundamentals are bolstered by the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure in the face of continuing shipping concerns. The EIA noted that global LNG trade hit an all-time high in 2025. Last month, Mexico began shipments of LNG from its new Energia Costa Azul terminal, adding 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to global capacity and increasing Mexico’s export capability by almost 3x. At the same time, uncertainty about LNG shipments via the Strait of Hormuz has kept tight expectations for global supply and underscored the importance of continued growth in North American LNG exports.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Bears Maintain Control Below $2.756

Natural gas has continued to decline towards the support at $2.648-$2.693, and is currently at $2.692, well below 50-EMA ($2.874) and 100-EMA ($2.956). This indicates that the trend is strongly bearish. RSI has fallen to 28, which is in the oversold region, and there could be a correction in the near term.

Resistance levels are seen at $2.756, $2.816 and $2.897. Support levels are at $2.648, $2.589 and $2.525.

Natural gas remains bearish below $2.756. A break above this level could push the price towards $2.816, while a break below $2.648 could lead to further declines towards $2.589 and $2.525.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Technical Analysis: Rebound Faces Resistance at $82.89 Pivot

WTI has bounced off the support at $77.96, and is now testing the pivot point at $82.89, where 50-EMA ($83.72) and 100-EMA ($83.37) are also located. These overlapping resistance points might prevent the rebound from moving higher. The RSI is at 47, indicating that the momentum is shifting to the upside but is still not yet bullish.

Resistance levels are seen at $82.89, $84.00 and $86.21. Support levels are at $80.00, $77.96 and $75.21.

WTI remains cautiously bearish below $82.89. A break above this level could push the price towards $84.00 and $86.21, while failure to maintain the support at $80.00 could lead to further declines towards $77.96.

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) Technical Analysis: Fibonacci Resistance Caps Recovery Near $85.68

Brent has bounced off the support at $80.61 and is trying to recover, but price is still below the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level at $85.68, which will act as immediate resistance. Both 50-EMA ($88.32) and 100-EMA ($88.37) are still above price, indicating that the trend is still bearish. RSI has risen to 43, suggesting that selling pressure is reducing, but it is not yet bullish.

Resistance levels are seen at $85.68, $88.81 and $91.33. Support levels are at $82.00, $80.61 and $77.75.

Brent remains bearish below $85.68. A break above this level could lead to further gains towards $88.81, while failure to maintain this level could lead to another decline towards $82.00 and $80.61.