Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Meeting Looms – Can WTI Hold Above $80?

Oil News: OPEC+ Meeting and Hormuz Flows Dominate Outlook

Oil fundamentals are centered on supply security heading into a pivotal week with the OPEC+ meeting on August 2 and continuing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. OPEC+ is likely to approve another 188,000 bpd production hike in September as part of a planned gradual reduction in voluntary output cuts even though Gulf exports remain disrupted, Reuters reported. OPEC+ producers pumped 36.28 million bpd in June, below the nearly 43 million bpd produced before the conflict intensified in the region.

The most important issue remains the geopolitics of oil and oil products. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain far below normal levels, despite US-Iran diplomatic meetings to resume. Crude and refined product exports through the Strait averaged 2.9 million bpd during the week ended July 24, according to Barclays, compared to 5.9 million bpd the previous week. While loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal have resumed after a brief stoppage, analysts continue to highlight the risk of further attacks in the Red Sea and near Saudi oil facilities.

Gas fundamentals remain positive even though inventories are above average. The US Energy Information Administration estimates dry natural gas production will average 111.25 Bcf/d in 2026. LNG exports should increase to 17.4 Bcf/d from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 due to new capacity coming on stream. Working gas inventories should end October at 3,966 Bcf, roughly 5% above the five-year average, which should help protect the US against winter supply issues while enabling greater exports.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Bears Maintain Control Below Breakdown Zone

Natural gas has remained bearish following the breakdown below the consolidation range and the downward sloping trendline. The price is now trading around $2.734 below the 50-EMA ($2.874) and 100-EMA ($2.944). The RSI is now around 33, showing strong bearish momentum. It is also close to the oversold zone.

The immediate support is at $2.728. The next supports are at $2.662 and $2.610. On the upside, the immediate resistance is at $2.781, with further resistance at $2.827 and $2.950.

The short-term trend remains bearish as long as natural gas trades below $2.781. If it breaks below $2.728, it may decline towards $2.662. A break above $2.827 will ease the pressure from sellers and pave the way for a move higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Bears Target Key Support at $80.46

WTI crude oil continues to face selling pressure after breaking the ascending channel support as well as the 50-EMA ($83.98). The price is currently trading around $80.82 above the 100-EMA ($81.33) and the key pivot point support at $80.46. The RSI is now around 37, showing weak momentum. However, it is close to the oversold zone.

The immediate support is at $80.46. The next supports are at $77.96 and $75.21. On the upside, the immediate resistance is at $82.00, with further resistance at $84.75 and $88.44.

The short-term trend remains bearish as long as WTI trades below $82.00. If WTI breaks below $80.46, it may decline towards $77.96. A break above $84.75 will ease the pressure from sellers and pave the way for a move higher.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Downtrend Extends Below Key Moving Averages

Brent crude oil has continued to fall below the rising channel, 50-EMA ($89.82) and 100-EMA ($86.74). The price is currently trading around $84.17. The RSI is now around 33, showing strong bearish momentum. It is also close to the oversold zone.

The immediate support is at $83.52. The next supports are at $79.52 and $75.07. On the upside, the immediate resistance is at $86.74, with further resistance at $88.12 and $92.72.

The short-term trend remains bearish as long as Brent trades below $86.74. If Brent breaks below $83.52, it may decline towards $79.52. A break above $88.12 will ease the pressure from sellers and pave the way for a move higher.