Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Storm Losses vs Supply Recovery – Who Wins the Price Fight?

Market Overview

Oil prices slipped as the market considered Kazakhstan’s gradual supply recovery alongside new disruptions elsewhere. Operations restarted at Kazakhstan’s largest field and the CPC export pipeline, which eased short-term supply tightness and put pressure on Brent time spreads. The March–April premium stayed high at over $0.80 per barrel, compared to about $0.30 earlier this month.

However, this weakness was partly balanced by weather-related outages in the US, where a severe winter storm shut in up to 2 million barrels per day, about 15 percent of national output, and disrupted Gulf Coast refineries.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions kept a risk premium in place, adding to uncertainty in oil and natural gas forecasts as traders weighed better supply against fragile supply chains.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG Pulls Back From $6.80 as Momentum Cools Above Key Fib Support

Natural gas is trading around $6.58 after it could not stay above $6.80, which is the 0.236 Fibonacci level from the $3.91 to $7.45 rally. On the 4-hour chart, recent candles have smaller bodies and upper wicks, showing some hesitation after the recent sharp move up.

The price is still above the rising trendline and remains within a short-term ascending channel. Fibonacci support is at $6.39 (0.382) and $6.06 (0.50), both serving as near-term demand zones.

The 50-EMA is still moving higher above the 200-EMA, so the trend structure is holding. The RSI has dropped from overbought levels to the mid-50s, which points to slowing momentum rather than a reversal. Resistance is at $6.80 and then $7.45.

Trade idea: Consider buying near $6.40, with a target of $6.95 and a stop below $6.05.

WTI Oil Price Forecast: USOIL Holds Rising Channel as $60.00 Acts as Pivot

WTI crude oil is trading around $60.50 after holding above the rising trendline from the $55.75 low. On the 4-hour chart, recent candles have small bodies and short wicks, which suggests the market is consolidating. The price is still within an upward channel, with resistance at $61.50 and $62.35, which are the channel’s top and a previous high.

A Fibonacci retracement from $55.75 to $62.35 shows key support at $59.83 (38.2%) and $59.05 (50%). The 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, which supports the current trend. The RSI is close to 50, indicating momentum is balanced. A short-term triangle pattern is forming between $59.80 and $61.50.

Trade idea: Consider buying near the $59.80 support level, with a target of $62.00 and a stop loss below $59.00.

Brent Oil Price Forecast: UKOIL Pauses Above Trend Support as $64.00 Zone Comes Into Focus

Brent crude is trading around $64.60 after pulling back from a recent high of $66.80. On the 4-hour chart, the latest candles show mixed bodies with small lower wicks, which suggests buyers are stepping in near trend support.

The price is still moving within a rising channel, with the lower edge close to $64.10 to $64.00. Fibonacci retracement from $59.82 to $66.80 highlights key support at $64.13 (0.382) and $63.31 (0.50).

The 50-EMA remains above the 200-EMA, so the overall trend is still positive. The RSI is just below 50, showing that momentum has cooled off in the short term. Resistance is at $65.35 and then $66.80.

Trade idea: Buy near $64.10, target $66.00, stop below $63.30.