Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Triangle Patterns Point to Breakout Amid OPEC+ Exports

Market Overview

WTI crude edged to $62.82 a barrel after a three-day slide as geopolitical tensions resurfaced. The EU’s proposed 19th sanctions package includes a ban on Russian LNG imports from 1 January 2027 and penalties on 118 “shadow” tankers and select foreign buyers, injecting volatility into oil and gas forward curves.

However, upside remains capped by ample supply and softer demand. Iraq has increased exports as voluntary OPEC+ cuts unwind, while refinery margins and freight costs temper buying appetite.

For forecasts, expect a modest risk premium in near-dated contracts and wider time spreads, but lingering macro headwinds should restrain sustained rallies.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas trades near $2.92 on the 4-hour chart after slipping below a rising trendline, turning it into resistance. Price is now boxed under the 50-EMA ($3.00) and 200-EMA ($3.05), an overhead band that has capped every rebound this month.

RSI 38 is lifting from oversold but hasn’t confirmed a momentum shift. If bulls can reclaim $2.95–$3.01 (trendline/50-EMA/round-number cluster), a squeeze toward $3.012 and $3.107 is feasible, with the broader triangle top near $3.20 beyond that. Failure to retake the cluster keeps pressure lower, exposing $2.839 first, then $2.766 and $2.696.

Until a firm close back above $3.01, treat bounces as corrective and watch for rejection wicks or bearish engulfing candles under the EMAs to signal continuation.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading around $62.82, holding inside a contracting wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. Price has been bouncing between descending resistance near $65.30 and rising support around $62.20. The 50-EMA ($63.25) and 200-EMA ($63.87) sit just above, creating overhead pressure. RSI at 44 shows weak momentum, but not oversold.

A close above $63.25 could allow a test of $64.10–$64.70, while failure to clear the EMAs may drag price back toward $62.20 and $61.70.

Traders will look for candle confirmation near these levels—such as rejection wicks or engulfing patterns—to gauge direction. For now, crude remains in consolidation, awaiting a decisive breakout from this wedge.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude sits near $67.13 on the 4-hour chart, coiling inside a symmetrical triangle of falling highs and rising lows. Price just rebounded from the rising trendline around $66.60, but remains capped by a tight EMA ceiling—the 50-EMA at $67.34 and 200-EMA at $67.46—which often stalls early bounces.

RSI near 46 reflects muted momentum and no clear divergence. A sustained push through $67.63 and a 4-hour close above the EMA band would shift bias higher toward $68.64, then $69.54–$70.30. Failure to clear that band keeps the range intact and risks another drift to $66.60; a breakdown there exposes $65.73 and $65.07.

Until a decisive close outside the triangle, expect range trading, with engulfing or rejection-wick candles near the EMAs or trendline guiding entries.