Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Truce Stability vs Supply Surge — Will Oil Collapse or NatGas Lead?

Oil and Gas Fundamentals Highlight Supply Growth and Seasonal Balances

On June 26, the global oil market remains in balance, as OPEC+ adherence to production targets is met with rising non-OPEC volumes anchored by robust U.S. production, while refinery runs remain high in major consuming markets and demand for transportation products and oil-based petrochemicals remains solid. In addition, market fundamentals are bolstered by typical summer dynamics and stock movements in the major hubs reflecting a broadly balanced physical market. In the U.S. crude stocklevels, crude levels have seen limited net change with near-minimal operational inventories in the hubs and demand for refined products remains solid amidst the prevailing economic conditions.

The U.S. gas market continues to exhibit robust and record-breaking production supported primarily by associated volumes and other developments; strong LNG export activities are also observed; stockpiles continue to replenish during the summer building season with working gas well above the past five years average; while power-sector consumption varies with weather conditions, while industrial demand remains stable. These factors suggest a comfortably supplied gas market that can accommodate both domestic demand and strong gas exports.

Natural Gas Futures Rise to $3.286 – Ascending Channel Maintains Bullish Momentum on the 2H Chart

Natural Gas is trading at $3.286 on the 2H NYMEX Chart. In a well-defined ascending channel, mixed candles have kept above the 50-period moving average around $3.18. Bullish rejection wicks below the $3.099 swing low support have kept buyers in control.

The RSI sits around 52, pointing to a bullish market. The volume profile points to $3.12 as a solid pivot support. The Fibonacci extension points to $3.247 to $3.330. Overall, the market remains in an uptrend. In addition, a higher high and higher low structure favors buyers on pullbacks.

Trade Idea: Buy at $3.286, targeting $3.330, with a stop-loss at $3.12.

WTI Crude Oil Dives to $70.45 – Triangle Breakdown Extends Bearish Momentum on the 4H Chart

The price is sitting at $70.45 on the 4H chart. After bouncing off the 50-period moving average, strong bearish continuation candles have broken below the triangle support zone near $85.75 to trigger a continuation of downward prices. Large bearish engulfing candles and a series of declining highs from the $104.45 swing high further solidify seller control.

The price is now falling toward the $63.01 to $56.12 Fibonacci extension. RSI sits below 40, pointing to a strong sellside momentum. The volume profile points to $78 to $85 as a failed fair-value region in the hands of sellers. In the meantime, a downtrending channel has kept the price down.

In addition, a downward-sloping trendline has served as a resistance zone for recovery attempts. Overall, the market remains in a downtrend below $85.75 within a long-term downtrend channel established from the $116 high. A lower high and lower low structure favors sellers.

Trade Idea: Sell at $70.45, targeting $63.01, with a stop-loss at $72.50.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $74.12 – Descending Channel Support Encourages Stabilization on the 2H Chart

Brent Crude is trading at $74.12 on the 2H chart. In a downtrend channel near $73.18, some bullish and bearish candles followed a failed bounce off the 50-period moving average around $78.27. Bullish rejection candles below resistance have prevented further losses.

RSI sits around 50, pointing to an indecisive market. The volume profile points to $75 to $76 as an emerging fair-value region. Resistance lies between $76.08 to $78.27. Overall, the market remains neutral to bullish in a downtrend channel. In addition, a higher low and higher high structure favors buyers on pullbacks.

Trade Idea: Buy at $74.12, targeting $76.08, with a stop-loss at $73.00.